March 23, 2026 | @TyPaddor
I’ll save you all (and myself) the usual preface about the Rockies and their dreadful 2025 season. We have since seen several new seasoned leaders added to the front office and strong signs out of Spring Training. The Rockies actually seem to be looking forward.
Last season set the bar very low in a lot of statistical categories, and if the club wants to set a new narrative for the future, they’ll need to blow through some of the 2025 marks.
Let’s take a look at some statistical thresholds we all should hope are exceeded by the 2026 club.
2026 Statlines to Watch
60 Wins
Unfortunately, we’re probably set for another 100-loss season. After winning just 43 games last year, a 17-game improvement would be massive. Not all record improvements are made equally of course. Moving from 43 to 60 wins isn’t as impressive as going from 80 to 90 wins, for instance. Still, progress is progress, and 2026 is about laying a foundation for years to come.
The club was shut out 18 times in 2025, allowing 4 or fewer runs in 9 of those games. Getting the offense out of hibernation will be a start. The club’s 18-23 record in one-run games was surprisingly okay and actually boosted their record from being the worst in the modern era.
Interestingly, the Rockies went 12-36 (.250 win percentage) against interleague opponents and were swept by 6 of the AL’s 15 clubs. This hints at poor preparation with a large sample of failure against less familiar opponents. Being more ready for these games will be low-hanging fruit for some record improvement.
Slight improvement across the board is all it will take. Going from atrocious to poor, though capable, should allow the team to push for 60 wins and beyond.
20 NL West Wins
Going 12-40 in NL West games was one of the bigger plagues of the 2025 Rockies. Those results extrapolated over 162 games would equal 37 wins.
The Rockies won’t suddenly beat down their divisional opponents, but they’ve got to find a way to get closer to .500 against them. Going roughly 20-32 would be a welcome improvement and represents another low-hanging way to generate more wins.
A 5.50 Team ERA
The club’s 5.99 ERA was their worst in post-humidor club history by an entire third of a run.
Not to point fingers but Luis Peralta and Bradley Blalock totaled 77.2 innings with a combined ERA around 9.40. A handful of other pitchers also finished the year over a 7 ERA. While some of last year’s strugglers are no longer in the organization, arms like Peralta will be eyeing better game planning and some individual improvement to significantly improve the team’s pitching results.
Generally, Rockies’ pitching staffs record an ERA in the 4.90-5.20 range. A 5.50 team mark wouldn’t even fall close to that normal range, yet it would represent a half run of improvement and reduce about 80 runs against over the full season.
With veteran additions like Michael Lorenzen, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Jose Quintana joining a staff that should hopefully improve considerably under the leadership of new pitching coach Alon Leichman and Director of Pitching Matt Daniels, this improvement should be well attainable.
Individual Numbers to Watch For:
Kyle Freeland, 4.40 ERA
After posting a 4.98 ERA in 2025, watch for Freeland to make some steady strides with more effective support from the coaching staff. A 4.40 ERA would be in line with his 2022 season and a bit below his 2020-21 run (4.33 ERA). As one of the clubhouse’s leaders, Freeland’s success is necessary.
Chase Dollander, 4.95 ERA
A 4.95 ERA isn’t necessarily an appealing goal, but after Dollander saw his ERA sit at 6.52 at season’s end, a run and a half of improvement would be massive. Dollander has tweaked his arsenal considerably and looks mechanically smoother in Spring Training, though the inconsistencies are still present. A 4.95 ERA would suggest things clicked on the field. Starting the season off in the bullpen is a bit of a surprise, but may actually boost Dollander’s ERA if he can lock down shorter stints early in the season.
One of our staff members predicts he’ll go sub-4.50 ERA. That would be a huge improvement.
180 Team Home Runs
The narrative of Coors Field being a crazy home run park is unfounded; it lands somewhere between the 5th and 10th most home run-friendly park leaguewide because the effects of altitude are largely mitigated by the larger park dimensions.
Still, Coors Field feels untamed on the power front. Extra fly ball distance will certainly make itself felt on pulled fly balls, an area the club has emphasized in their offseason acquisitions with Willi Castro and TJ Rumfield being strong pull-side hitters who elevate the baseball.
In 2025, the Rockies ranked 24th in the number of pulled flyballs hit with 280 as a group. The additions of Castro and Rumfield, plus hopeful improvement from the rest of the club, should push that number higher and help take advantage of the summer heat at Coors Field.
In terms of home run output, the club’s 160 long balls ranked 25th. Amassing a dozen or so more as a group will greatly improve the club’s dreadful offensive output from 2026 and revitalize the Coors Field experience.
Hunter Goodman even coming close to repeating his 31 homers from 2025 will be key to pushing above 160 and closer to 200 big flies.
Individual Numbers to Watch For:
Ezequiel Tovar, 28 HR
In 2024, Tovar showed he was more than a glove-first slasher, hitting 26 home runs before regressing last year due to injury. In Spring Training, Tovar seemed to be making more contact than usual without sacrificing contact quality, and those under-the-hood improvements have made him one of the brightest stars of the WBC with a 1.147 OPS for Venezuela. Look for a bounce-back year from Tovar and a career high in HR.
TJ Rumfield, 18 HR
Rumfield could get far more than 18, but his home run career high is just 17 in the minors. He seems to be hitting the ball harder in Spring Training and could push for 20 long balls — the exact number the Rockies got from their 1B last year in 637 PAs.
Willi Castro, 16 HR
As mentioned earlier, Castro’s ability to pull the ball in the air stands out. He figures to benefit from Coors Field versus the more HR-neutral Target Field Castro spent so much time in with the Twins.
I’m also watching for Troy Johnston to get into double digits, Jordan Beck to break 20, and Mickey Moniak to repeat with a mid-20s total.
8.2% Team Walk Rate (Offense)
The Rockies have been at the bottom of the league for walks taken in recent years and posted a paltry 6.7% rate last year. Bumping that figure to 8.2% would be a modest improvement, but line them up much closer to the middle 3rd of the league.
The additions of Troy Johnston, Edouard Julien, TJ Rumfield, and eventually Charlie Condon figure to improve the walk rate, though hopefully internal directives also help.
20.5% Team Strikeout Rate (Pitching)
Like the lineup’s lack of walks, the Rockies’ pitching staff ranked last in strikeouts with a 17.2% clip, 2.6% lower than the next worst team.
While Paul DePodesta certainly didn’t go out and acquire a bunch of strikeout pitchers, collective philosophical improvement should yield gains and get the staff closer to being normal in terms of strikeouts. After all, a 20.5% rate would have still ranked 28th in the league, but would be a similar distance from the best strikeout team in the league as the Rockies were from the 29th-ranked team last year.
Expect to see moderate strikeout gains from arms like Chase Dollander, Seth Halvorsen, and Antonio Senzatela, while the club also phases out arms like Bradley Blalock and Austin Gomber who combined struck out around 11% of batters.
100 Stolen Bases
The Rockies 87 steals last year ranked 23rd in the league, respectable enough but still an improvable category. Warren Schaeffer has thrown around the Detroit Tigers as a strategic model for the Rockies’ game planning, which may impede the Rockies from stealing bases. The Tigers were extremely aggressive taking extra bases with a ball in play, but they ranked last in steals.
Still, the Rockies added speed this winter with Jake McCarthy (99th percentile sprint speed) who has stolen 23 or more bags three times in his career. Willi Castro has a track record for stealing bags with 33 steals in 2023, though he has lost a step as he’s developed.
Carrying over from last year’s roster, speed is a theme with Brenton Doyle, Ryan Ritter, Braxton Fulford, Jordan Beck, Mickey Moniak, and Tyler Freeman all ranking comfortably above average by sprint speed.
We’ll see just how aggressive the club is under Schaeffer’s leadership, but the Rockies have the wheels to break the century mark for steals.
Staff Predictions
I polled our staff for other stat predictions they have and am including some here:
Beck, Doyle, and Moniak combine for over 60 homers – Noah
Beck over 20 homers – Cooper
Beck is becoming a popular pick for a jump this year.
Tovar over 40 doubles – Cooper
If Tovar pushes for both 40 doubles and 30 homers, he’s gonna be special.
Juan Mejia goes over 5 saves – Isaac
Mejia has impressed since his debut last year and may be the least volatile of the Rockies young power arms; that might just get him save opportunities.
Zac Veen over 10 homers – Shawn
After putting on a ton of mass this offseason, a new and improved Veen could be a big league threat.
Over 3.5 Rockies traded at the deadline – David
Slightly different approach here for David, but the new front office has picked up a handful of tradeable veterans.
Chase Dollander under 5.50 home ERA – David
This one is bold after Dollander recorded a 9.98 ERA at home last season. A 4+ run improvement would be astronomical.
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