Tyler Paddor | @TyPaddor | April 19th, 2024
Earlier today, Kyle Freeland was unexpectedly placed on the Injured List with a left elbow strain. Righty Noah Davis was recalled as the corresponding move. This is the one development Rockies fans did not want to see this season–an early season injury in the rotation.
In Monday’s game, Freeland was sent into the game as a pinch runner, representing the go-ahead run–to the ire of many in the baseball world–before allegedly being tagged out at the plate by Jeff Hoffman.
Freeland appeared injured on the play, landing awkwardly on his right shoulder. At first glance, you’d think this injury lingered and sent Freeland to the IL, however, he was tagged with a left elbow strain, a completely separate injury. With elbow injuries becoming a nightmare trend for pitchers, this should concern Rockies fans.
While we don’t know the extent of the injury and it’s easy to assume the worst, early indications are somewhat positive, with Freeland saying he first injured his elbow in Toronto.
Davis Ready to Aid Rotation
Fortunately, Noah Davis is a capable replacement. In his first two starts last year, Davis combined to go 9.2 innings, allowing just 1 earned run, while striking out 10. He struggled with efficiency and general command–issues that plagued his next 3 starts at the big league level.
Davis had a plan going into the offseason as a result; finding a way to be more consistent. Of course, Davis spent time tinkering with his pitches–that’s just what he does as a self-proclaimed student of pitching science. The hope is we can see some of his lessons and goals play out in his second season getting opportunities in the Rockies rotation.
In Triple-A, Davis started rough, allowing 9 runs in his first two starts, but he’s since allowed just 4 runs over 11 innings covering his last two starts, striking out 14 in the process.
Using the Prospects Live AAA Stuff+ App (created by Dylan Drummey), we can get a better understanding of how Davis’s stuff looks this year. Below are Davis’s Stuff+ measures in 2024. As a reminder, with any stat with a + indicates the metric is adjusted to be on a scale with 100 representing average (110 is very good, 90 is okay).
| Sinker | Cutter | Curveball | Slider | Changeup | |
| 2024 | 92 | 100 | 110 | 109 | 104 |
While Davis’s primary pitch, his sinker, grades out below average, Davis follows it up with 4 average or better pitches. Few pitchers can boast multiple average or better pitches by Stuff+.
The Stuff+ App also tracks Location+, seeking to measure how well a pitcher is locating their pitches, and Davis’s Location+ metrics have risen across the board, suggesting he’s been at least somewhat successful in hitting his spots.
All in all, we shouldn’t expect Davis to suddenly be a fixture in the Rockies rotation, but he appears better equipped to take advantage of an opportunity and could earn a spot, even when Freeland returns.
Who’s Next?
What if there’s another injury, you might ask? Again, given the state of today’s game, another pitching injury seems likely to occur sometime in the first half (knock on wood the Rockies can avoid that). Fortunately, this year, the Rockies are a bit better suited to replace injured starters, even though the Albuquerque rotation has been a mess.
Ty Blach, LHP
Blach seems very likely to rejoin the Rockies at some point soon, given the shaky state of their bullpen. If it weren’t for the Rockies staying committed to Rule 5 pick Anthony Molina, Blach would almost certainly be on the roster right now.
While Blach has averaged less than 4 innings per start–this is by design, Blach has been successful–he’s started in all of his appearances and appears ready to come up and throw 70+ pitches.
Blach’s 3.45 ERA in the early going are positive signs and Blach’s stuff seems as good as ever. The Rockies could do much worse than Blach, as we saw last year.
Carson palmquist, LHP
This is the name that should get you excited. Palmquist, the Rockies #15 prospect according to MLB.com, had an excellent Spring Training and has followed that up with two dominant starts in Double-A.
Fueled by a funky arm slot and plenty of deception, Palmquist’s now deep arsenal is ready to face MLB hitters. Just because he hasn’t seen Triple-A yet, doesn’t mean he can’t get called up straight away.
If the Rockies want to take a shot at upside in the rotation, Palmquist is absolutely the guy.
In Case of Emergency…
The Rockies could also give Josh Rogers or Karl Kauffmann a look, but the pair offer less intrigue at the moment with Rogers a low octane pitcher and Kauffmann struggling to start the year. Peter Lambert is a sleeper option, though he wasn’t included as a prime candidate because he’s thriving in his current bullpen role.
The club still doesn’t have a ton of MLB ready starters, though that is set to change quickly with a loaded High-A rotation doing work in Spokane. For now though, the Rockies need to keep their fingers crossed they don’t have to replace any more starters.
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