Tyler Paddor and Luke Wortman | @TyPaddor & @Luke_W31 | May 23, 2024
After a short hiatus from the Stock Watch series, it’s time to ramp things into full gear. The draft is less than 2 months away and draft narratives are starting to take shape as player draft stocks solidify.
To remind you of our format, each installment of “Stock Watch” will contain the main prospects at the forefront of consideration for the Rockies’ #3 overall selection and an additional few that are in the periphery. Now that we know more information, the shortlist of candidates can start to shrink down.
Further, with the draft getting much closer, we’ll start introducing targets for the Rockies second (38), third (42), and fourth (77 picks). Four picks inside the top 77 will enable Colorado to have a draft class to remember.
All stats as of May 23rd.
The Top 8:
1: Charlie Condon, 3B/OF, Georgia (Last Rank: 1) ๐ฅ๐๏ธ
2024 Stats: .443/.558/1.043 (1.601 OPS) | 35 HR | 18.2 BB% : 14.2 K% | 90th EV: 111.9 mph
It’s been a historic year for Condon, as he just recently set the BBCOR (metal bat) NCAA home run record. He’s since built on that mark with his 35th long ball of the season. If it’s not already obvious, Condon’s power is special; legit 70 pop as indicated by his 90th percentile EV of 111.9. He’s also got great bat to ball skills–especially for a power hitter–and will work counts. We’ve seen Condon look far more human against SEC pitching, but there are still few questions surrounding his bat.
Whether Condon primarily plays 3B, LF/RF, or 1B is to be decided but even having that flexibility is a perk so he’s not sharpied into one spot in the lineup. Condon is arguably the favorite to go first overall but the draft works in fascinating ways, leaving a very legitimate chance of him being available at pick 3.
2: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (Last Rank: 2) ๐ช๐๏ธ
2024 Stats: .423/.582/.949 (1.531 OPS) | 26 HR | 25.7 BB% : 11.6 K% | 90th EV: 108.7 mph
Last Stock Watch, Bazzana was hitting .469 with 15 homers. While the average would be difficult to maintain deep into conference play, Bazzana did find another gear down the stretch, launching 11 home runs since mid-April and boosting his walk rate to over 25%. Bazzana’s bat to ball skills are excellent and his approach is even better, giving him arguably the best hit tool in the class.
Bazzana is a rare talent and if he happens to be available to the Rockies, they’d be making a significant decision to pass on him, despite there being other excellent prospects available.
3: JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia (Last Rank: 3) ๐๐ฅ
2024 stats: .356/.500/.664 (1.164 OPS) | 8 HR | 20.6 BB% : 9.9 K% | 90th EV: 108.2 mph
After missing a large part of the season with a hamstring injury, Wetherholt is back with a vengeance, posting a 1.320 OPS since April 13th with all 8 of his home runs coming in his last 92 plate appearances. It seems people forgot Wetherholt was capable of production like this after his time away, but his underlying metrics suggest Wetherholt is in play for the number 1 pick.
Wetherholt’s bat to ball skills are top notch, as are his swing decisions. Like Bazzana, he’s seen an uptick in his raw power this year and projects to be a 70 hit/60 power player. Defensively, Wetherholt hasn’t been great at shortstop and will likely man 2B or 3B in the pros, with the outfield a possibility, too. The gospel is the same here with Wetherholt as it was with Bazzana; this is a special bat and the Rockies may feel pressed to select him even if the club can always use high-quality pitching.
4: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M (Last Rank: 6) ๐ฅ๐
2024 Stats: .324/.460/.759 (1.219 OPS) | 26 HR | 18.8 BB% : 19.9 K% | 90th EV: 110.8 mph
Montgomery came into the season as a borderline top-10 draft prospect, but his stock has skyrocketed as he has hit 26 homers with a .324 batting average. Every facet of his game has improved, but especially his plate discipline as he has walked almost as much as he has struck out. The improved plate discipline has really allowed Montgomery’s double-plus power to shine through.
The switch-hitting outfielder is one of the best fastball mashers in the entire NCAA. His swing from the left side has drawn comparisons to former Rockie, Carlos Gonzalez. Defensively, Montgomery looks like an above average corner outfielder with a rocket arm. The Texas A&M product will be most likely available at pick #3 and thereโs a real chance the Rox will take him.
5: Jac Caglianone, DH/LHP, Florida (Last Rank: 5) ๐๐ฉ
2024 Hitting Stats: .415/.525/.844 (1.369 OPS) | 29 HR | 15.7 BB% : 8.0 K% | 90th EV: 111.7 mph
2024 Pitching Stats: 13 GS, 62.0 IP | 4.35 ERA, 1.50 WHIP | 15.7 BB% : 24.2 K% | Avg FB Velo: 93.9
The Shohei Ohtani of NCAA Baseball, Caglianone continues to put up impressive numbers on both sides of the ball. The Florida Gator hits the ball with truly elite impact (69 career home runs in college), and throws very hard as well. Perhaps most impressively, Caglianone’s bat to ball skills have shined through as top of the line, he just needs to reduce his chase swings. On the hill, we’ve seen some negative regression from Caglianone and his future as a two-way player is more in question than previously.
Thereโs not a player in this class that has more potential than Caglianone. His walk rate on the mound and chase rate at the plate need to go down, but for the most part, heโs actually a pretty refined player. Caglianone is in serious contention to be picked in the top 5 and may emerge as a favorite for the Rockies to kill two birds with one stone.
6: Konnor Griffin, OF/RHP, Jackson Prep (MS) (Last Rank: 4) ๐ซ๐ฅ
2024 Stats (MaxPreps): 171 PA | .559/.724/.983 (1.708 OPS) | 9 HR | 85 SB | 27.5 BB% : 5.8 K%
Griffin was a man amongst boys in the Mississippi high school ranks this year, stealing a ridiculous 85 bags, getting on base nearly 75% of the time, and even pitching to a 0.72 ERA over 67.2 innings. Griffin did everything he could to establish himself as a freak of nature and profiles alongside recent prep draft prospects Druw Jones, Bobby Witt Jr., and Royce Lewis as 5-tool talents with upside to dominate the sport–as Witt Jr. is doing now.
The Rockies may try avoiding risk with the number 3 overall pick and Griffin is inherently the riskiest option as a high school prospect. Even then, the impressive 6-foot-4 Griffin is still firmly in play.
7: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas (Last Rank: 8) ๐ฅ๐
2024 Stats: 14 GS, 77.0 IP | 1.52 ERA, 0.831 WHIP | 9.7 BB% : 50.2 K% | Avg FB Velo: 95.7 mph
As stated in previous Stock Watches, it is a requirement for us to mention Smithโs dominant start against Oregon State, where he retired out the first 16 batters he faced via the K. While that was Smith’s signature moment this year, he’s been steadily overpowering all year.
The Arkansas junior can hit 100 mph with his fastball, typically sitting 94-97. Smith also throws a plus slider and a promising changeup. His unconventional delivery and low slot help to throw batters off. Thereโs a case to be made that Smith is the best pitching prospect in the class and while pitchers can be risky because of arm injuries and volatility, the Rockies couldn’t go wrong adding a blue chip pitching prospect.
8: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest (Last Rank: 7) ๐ฏ๐ฅ
2024 Stats: 14 GS, 89.0 IP | 2.63 ERA, 0.843 WHIP | 7.0 BB% : 49.6 K% | Avg FB Velo: 97.8 mph
A potential decision looms for the Rockies as they consider two premier pitching prospects in Smith and Burns. Smith has an edge as a hard-throwing lefty with quality command–an archetype that rarely comes along–while Burns is the embodiment of power, sitting 96-99, touching 101–also an archetype that rarely comes along.
Not only does Burns throw gas, he has two high-velocity, ultra-spin breaking balls, and lands them for strikes. Burns has flashed a 2-seam, cutter, and changeup, too. The flamethrower has very impressive control and is somewhat reminiscent of last year’s number 1 pick Paul Skenes.
The fact that Burns slots in at 8 shows just how strong the top of this draft class is. The Rockies have so many options and really can’t go wrong if they select one of these eight.
The Next 5 Up
With our top 8 covered, let’s hit on the next 5 players on the cusp of consideration for the number 3 pick, though only one of them (Kurtz) really could be in play with limited time left in the season.
9: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest (Last Rank: 11) ๐ช
2024 Stats: .313/.533/.781 (1.315 OPS) | 21 HR | 30 BB% : 15.8 K% | 90th EV: 110.4 mph
Kurtz had a nightmare start to the year. He wasn’t finding the barrel and suffered a moderate shoulder injury. A preseason favorite to go top-3, Kurtz was free falling down draft boards. Fast forward and a healthy Kurtz has been arguably college baseball’s best hitter over the last couple of months with a 1.557 OPS since March 12th.
Kurtz has some of the best plate discipline in this class, raw power on par with Condon, Caglianone, and Montgomery, and solid bat to ball skills. He’s the complete package offensively and would likely go in the top-3 if not for his defensive restriction to first base.
10: Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina (Last Rank: 10) ๐๐
2024 Stats: 14 GS, 86.0 IP | 2.09 ERA, 0.884 WHIP | 8.4 BB% : 41.7 K% | Avg FB Velo: 94.2 mph
Yesavage is a pitcher’s pitcher. He’s got a complete arsenal headed by his dominant 4-seam fastball, and supported by a plus slider and plus changeup, with an effective curveball also in the mix. Yesavage would be right in the mix with Smith and Burns if he threw a tick harder than his 93-96 range. The Rockies were hoping someone like Yesavage would be in play with their second pick before his outstanding season vaulted him into top-10 consideration.
11: Seaver King, SS/OF, Wake Forest (Last Rank: 9) ๐
2024 Stats: .323/.390/.613 (1.003 OPS) | 16 HR | 8.7 BB% : 11.7 K% | 90th EV: 109.8 mph
As a Division 2 transfer, King was bound to face a learning curve playing for a powerhouse ACC program. The explosive King has certainly found his way with a 1.161 OPS since April 6th. There’s still some free-swinging nature to King’s game but he’s got tremendous feel for the barrel and could emerge as a premier power-speed threat playing SS, CF, 3B, and/or 2B.
12: Cam Smith, 3B, Florida State (Last Rank: N/A) ๐ช
2024 Stats: .402/.487/.670 (1.156 OPS) | 13 HR | 11.5 BB% : 16.9 K% | 90th EV: 111.3 mph
Smith has steadily risen up boards this year as a draft eligible sophomore. The strongly built Smith has huge raw power that is starting to show up in games more frequently and he’s making a ton of contact as well. Smith just isn’t quite in the Rockies range.
13: James Tibbs, OF, Florida State (Last Rank: N/A) ๐ช๐ฏ
2024 Stats: .382/.498/.828 (1.327 OPS) | 24 HR | 16.7 BB% : 8.9 K% | 90th EV: 107.6 mph
Another Florida State riser, Tibbs has played like a top 10 pick and could be an underslot target for a team just beyond the Rockies. Tibbs and Smith have combined to form one of the most dangerous lineups in all of college baseball at FSU. Tibbs is a pro hitter who makes tons of contact, has a great approach, solid pop. Heโs not a great defender but should fit in left field long term.
On the Radar
William Schmidt, RHP, Catholic HS (LA)
Yes, you technically could call him Bill Schmidt. More importantly though, Schmidt is one of those arms that you just know will be dominant. He’s got big time power on his fastball and arguably the best breaking ball in the entire draft class. The Rockies may try to price a high school player down to the 38th pick, though Schmidt may have demands the Rockies can’t meet.
Bryce Rainer, SS/RHP, Harvard-Westlake HS (CA)
Rainerโs ability to play on both sides of the ball and the potential he exhibits at both positions would make him an intriguing pick for the Rox. The prep infielder has the potential to have plus pop and a solid hit tool, all while playing plus defense at short. On the mound, he showcases super easy mechanics while hitting 97 mph. Most teams are said to prefer him as a shortstop but I wouldnโt be surprised if the team that drafts him lets him do both. With an impressive showcase run this summer, Rainer could gain some traction as a top-5 pick.
Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State
Dynamic on both sides of the ball, Benge has big raw power courtesy of a smooth swing, excellent bat to ball skills, and a good approach. His swing needs work to keep the ball off the ground but the upside is immense. On the mound, Benge sits in the mid-90s with two solid secondaries and will likely get a chance to play on both sides of the ball as a top of the lineup corner outfielder and a bullpen option.
Ryan Johnson, RHP, Dallas Baptist
Johnson has ascended draft boards thanks to his rare combo of velo and plus command. The Dallas Baptist righty has an electric fastball that has touched 99 and he pairs it with some of the best command in the class, as he has only walked 3% of hitters this season. His secondaries have taken a major step-up this year, as well, with a potentially plus slider. He may not be ranked as the best pitcher in this class at the moment, but when all is said and done he could turn out to be the most valuable one because of his command.
Picks 38, 42, & 77
Almost as exciting as the number 3 pick, holding 3 other high selections in this draft give the Rockies a chance to build a very strong core. Like in 2022 when the Rockies selected Sterlin Thompson and Jordan Beck right after the first round, some impact MLB players are likely to be selected beyond their first pick.
Ryan Waldschmidt, OF, Kentucky
Waldschmidt is a toolsy, scrappy player who does it all, performing in the SEC the last couple of years. He hits the ball very hard and makes a lot of contact, all while having a solid approach at the plate. The Rockies should consider themselves lucky if they have the chance to pick him at 38 or 42 as Waldschmidt is an easy breakout candidate.
Gage Jump, LHP, LSU
Jump is a talented lefty with mid-90s velocity–ranging from 92-96–and two quality breaking balls. His ability to create a flatter approach angle on his fastball with his lower slot, release angle, pitch shape make it a plus offering. His high spin breaking balls feature plenty of break, giving Jump a solid mid-rotation profile.
Carter Holton, LHP, Vanderbilt
Holton is a polished strike thrower but he also throws hard (92-97) and has a wicked trio of secondaries. The results this year didn’t match Holton’s stuff or process and his ERA should be taken with a grain of salt.
Michael Massey, RHP, Wake Forest
The Rockies look for extension out of their pitchers (guys that get far down the mound towards home plate). Extension helps velocity play up and has led to some success at altitude. Massey gets elite extension, allowing his mid-90s fastball to play like an upper-90s one. In a long line of elite Wake Forest starters in recent years, Massey has a chance to be up there with the very best.
Drew Beam, RHP, Tennessee
Tennessee alums Chase Dollander and Seth Halvorsen have performed well since being drafted, and thus if the Rockies want to choose from the Volunteer pipeline again, they have a great option in Beam. Beamโs fastball reaches the upper 90s and he pairs it with solid command. His secondaries do need to improve but his frame and command give him a solid floor.
Christian Moore, 2B, Tennessee
Moore has absolutely demolished the ball this season so far hitting .382 with 27 homers and a 90th percentile exit velocity of 110.6. Moore combines plus pop with a solid hit tool at the plate as he has a decent approach and limits swing and miss, given his double-plus power potential. If the Rockies are seeking some thump this year, Moore is the guy. It’s hard not to be reminded of Jordan Beck, aside from the Vols uniform.
Dylan Dreiling, OF, Tennessee
The last of a few Tennessee prospects, Dreiling is much like Waldschmidt, a polished do-it-all guy. There’s above average power here, a quality approach, and decent bat to ball skills. Dreiling could be a quality everyday player.
Payton Tolle, LHP, TCU
Dipping back into the extension bucket, Tolle gets even further down the hill than Massey, though his stuff isn’t quite as effective. Tolle sits 91-93 with an average slider and curveball. A two-way player until this year, Tolle has a chance to flourish during his second full year as a pitcher-only.
Thatcher Hurd, RHP, LSU
Talk about a live wire, Hurd has some of the best spin rates in the class, averaging about 3,000 rpm on his curveball and maxing at 3,450 rpm. It’s a potentially double-plus pitch that he mixes with a similarly good slider and a jumpy fastball that sits 93-96.
Slade Caldwell, OF, Valley View HS (AR)
Onto a trio of HS players, in the case of Caldwell, it would require the Rockies to pay him well over the slot value of their 38th/42nd pick. The 5-foot-8 outfielder draws comps to Corbin Carroll thanks to an efficient bat that could net 15+ homers that supports great feel for contact and excellent speed. He’s a future leadoff hitter and centerfielder.
PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC)
Morlando had been mentioned in both of the previous Stock Watches as a potential option at pick 3. Unfortunately, his plus raw power didn’t show up in games much as pitchers were not giving him a chance to beat them often. Morlando is a high-talent player with limited risk though his ceiling is a bit unclear.
Grant Shepardson, RHP, Mountain Vista HS (CO)
A Colorado prep arm, Shepardson has flown up draft boards thanks to a fastball that has topped at 96 and a dynamic slider. Scouts will dream that the still somewhat projectable Shepardson could eventually sit in the mid-90s with his slider and budding changeup.
Thanks for checking out our third installment of Stock Watch. With NCAA baseball tournaments on the horizon, things are going to get even more exciting! We will try and cover even more mid-round prospects as the summer unfolds.
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