Louis Taggart | @LTtalksfootball | August 3, 2023
99% of baseball fans do not know the ins-and-outs of their organization. That means it’s tough to grade your team when you have no clue what you are getting in return. BaseballTradeValues.com is here to bridge the gap, it may not be perfect, but it’s a well-established trade simulator that is highly rated.
Let’s break down the trades the Rockies have made this deadline and see how it is rated by the simulator.
Pierce Johnson Trade
If you look at Pierce Johnson’s season numbers, it may look like the Braves made a bad decision. That’s surface-level analysis and the reason stats don’t make or break a player. At Coors Field, his ERA was 7.37 with a 12% strikeout rate. His stuff just doesn’t play at Coors Field, and the Braves think it’s a fit.
In return, the prospects got the #10, Victor Vodnik, and #26, Tanner Gordon, prospects in the Braves system. I won’t bore you with what kind of pitches these guys throw and how I think they will pan out, because no one knows if these guys will be good. The more prospects the Rockies acquire, the more dart throws they have at a chance to hit.
Just like the simulator shows, this trade is a win for the Rockies. Johnson wasn’t coming back next year, and this team needs pitching prospects.
Justin Bruihl Trade
I’m going to keep this analysis short and sweet. With the trades of their bullpen arms, the Rockies needed to find an MLB-capable left-handed pitcher to keep this team somewhat competent. Now the simulator has the Rockies giving 4.2 million dollars to the Dodgers. I am unable to confirm nor deny that number (cash considerations are never known), but I can say when the Dodgers sign Shohei Ohtani, it will partly be because of the money the Rockies gave them.
Bruihl was most likely not pitching for the Dodgers anymore this season, so this trade is about as even as they get.
Brad Hand Trade
The second trade between the Braves and Rockies comes with a much cheaper asking price. The Rockies traded Brad Hand for Alec Barger. Barger was ranked outside the Top 30 in Atlanta’s farm system, so they gave up nothing………… that’s exactly what people were saying about Fernando Tatis in the James Shields trade, but I digress.
I’m more surprised that the call wasn’t for Brent Suter, who is having an excellent year in Colorado, but I understand why they went after Hand.
The simulator says this trade is dead equal, and I agree. The Braves have an excess of pitching prospects and need bullpen help, while the Rockies just need pitching depth in the minors.
Cron and Grichuk Trade
The last trade I will be looking at is the biggest one and netted the most for the Rockies.
The Angels decided that they were going all-in on this season, and the Rockies took advantage. They traded C.J. Cron, whose power has regressed and is having an all-around down year, and Randal Grichuk, who is having a crazy productive season, but is not in the Rockies plans for two high upside pitching prospects. They snagged the Angels #8, Jake Madden, and #28, Mason Albright, prospects in return.
It needs to be reiterated that these two guys weren’t in the future plans, but the players the Rockies got will be. They traded something worthless to them for a chance at something great. Deadline rentals will rarely get you a franchise-changing hall, but they will get you more depth and competition, thus elevating everyone in the organization.
What To Take Away
I spend a lot of my time on MLB Pipeline, and if that has shown me anything, it’s that the number next to prospect means nothing. Go back and take a look at a random team’s 2019 farm system and then look at the current one. It’s impossible to predict who will be good and who won’t pan out, but if you can grab hold of as many prospects as possible, it gives you more chances to find a quality guy.
This simulator also can’t predict who will win every trade because we won’t know until a way later date. I believe the Rockies won every trade because they traded away players that aren’t in the future plans for dudes that could be playing in a couple of years. If just one of these guys hits, it’s all worth it.
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