In the first installment of this two-part series, we looked at some utility players and backup catchers that could fit into the Rockies free agency plans. This time around, the focus will be on pitching, the far greater need.
As mentioned in the last post, the free agent class lopsidedly favors pitching; there’s a handful of top of the rotation arms, another handful of mid-rotation starters, and another two dozen or so that profile at the back of a rotation.
Even after acquiring Cal Quantrill, another starter is necessary to keep this team afloat and, potentially, respectable. The bullpen is largely set with 11 players on the 40-man that appeared out of the pen for Colorado last year, many of which figure to be core members.
Even with the large stable of arms, another reliever wouldn’t hurt as Evan Justice, Gavin Hollowell, Victor Vodnik, and Riley Pint–the guys that will be on the bubble–are all optionable and could be recalled later in the year, in case of injury or underperformance.
To begin the offseason, pitching has clearly been in demand with the likes of Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Sonny Gray all signing with the Cardinals and Nick Martinez, Aaron Nola, Reynaldo Lopez, Kenta Maeda, Emilio Pagan, and Luis Severino all finding their respective new homes.
Rotation Options:
It’s safe to say that the Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, etc. tier is a bit above where the Rockies will be able to play in the market and many of the next tier might be out of the running as well.
Based on the Rockies tendency to find high character players, with the exception of acquiring Jose Reyes (somewhat of a requirement to make that trade work), Trevor Bauer and Julio Urias and their current unsettled off field issues likely don’t fit with the organization, though they’d be longshots anyway. This applies to Domingo German, as well.
Here is the field to work with (not quite a ranked list):
Surprisingly, the pool is still pretty stocked with options, although as alluded to earlier, some of these player may be reluctant to consider Colorado and Coors Field. For the Rockies to find a starter in free agency, they’re going to need to target a pitcher with a less-than-dynamic market and they’re going to need to entice said player with an attractive offer.
The longshot tier consists of Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Brandon Woodruff. Fortunately, for the Rockies, everyone else could be in play but chances are, Colorado will have to get creative and look to the lower part of this list.
Instead of briefly breaking down each free agent–that would make for an endless article--I’ll discuss the more realistic options and highlight a few that seem like ideal fits.
Starting in the middle tier, options like Jack Flaherty, James Paxton, Wade Miley, Michael Lorenzen, Sean Manaea, Tyler Mahle, and Frankie Montas seem like potentially attainable players though due to general desirability and risk factors, they’re all somewhat unlikely.
Jack Flaherty, a former ace caliber pitcher, fell victim to a slew of injuries since 2020 and hasn’t quite regained his form. The former Cardinal is just recently 28 and proved to still be a capable MLB starter this past season. It’s likely Flaherty will be pursued as a 5th starter with upside by a more analytically-minded organization.
James Paxton has sparingly stayed healthy in his career, especially as of late, though he brings value when he is on the bump. This will keep his market tame but also stand as a reason Colorado will likely avoid him; they need certainty in the rotation.
Wade Miley, recently 37, has never been a flashy starter but his career 20.2 fWAR is a testament to his consistency when healthy. The southpaw seems like the perfect candidate for a contender in need of a 5th starter but his lack of strikeout stuff may leave the Rockies a chance to get in the door.
Michael Lorenzen has only recently found success as a starter but faded down the stretch this year. He’s not a flashy starter but found more consistent command and a better arsenal balance this season. Lorenzen’s market might not be very lucrative which could play to the Rockies advantage.
Since being traded from Oakland before the 2022 season, Sean Manaea has had an up and down 2-year run in the NL West with the Padres in 2022 and Giants in 2023 where he made a lot of bullpen appearances. Many teams still likely view him as a 5th starting option but an opportunity could be there for Colorado should they want to add a lefty to the back-end of their rotation.
Tyler Mahle will return from a torn UCL sometime early this summer after undergoing Tommy John on May 11th. He stands as a better fit for a contender that can give him a pillow contract with hopes Mahle provides quality starts down the stretch this year. Still, the Rockies could take a risk and offer a substantial amount over a multi-year deal.
Frankie Montas barely returned at the end of last season from a year-long shoulder injury. Prior to that, Montas had been a top of the rotation arm and figures to be an even more clear-cut one-year pillow contract option for a contender.
Of that group, there are no clear fits for the reasons stated above; either the financial commitment might not match the certainty the Rockies would need from such an investment or other suitors figure to pose too great of a threat. Still, these are the seven best pitchers on the market that would likely have a conversation with the Rockies.
Everyone else figures to be right in the Rockies wheelhouse; some guys will jump at the clear path to an MLB rotation versus the bullpen of another squad or even the AAA rotation for a team on a split-MLB contract. From here, I’ll sift through the rest to find the five best possible fits.
Option #1: Jakob Junis
As we talked about on the pod a couple of weeks ago, Junis could be a fit for Colorado. The 31-year-old is an outside the box fit after only starting four games for San Francisco last year but he comes with 110 career starts and averaged over 2 innings per appearance last season.
The former 29th round pick might not fit the classic innings eater mold but he could easily be stretched out to get through the order twice per outing. Worst case, Junis could be a versatile piggy back option out of the bullpen, capable of picking up a starter for multiple innings when they struggle.
Beyond his flexible role, Junis brings some qualities that should be very attractive to the Rockies; he has an extremely low career walk rate, he induces ground balls around a league average rate, misses his fair share of bats, and has a mean slider.
In 2023, Junis walked a stellar 5.7% of hitters, held a 43.2% ground-ball rate, and struck out a well-above average 26.2% of hitters. His slider had a 32.5% whiff rate and a .216 average against it.
The main downside here is Junis lacks a second dynamic pitch. His changeup is roughly average but Junis lacks a quality fastball. He has tinkered with his fastball use a lot over the years, switching from a 4-seam to a sinker and mixing in a cutter in the past. He relied on a sinker this past season and it averaged 93.7 mph but also came with a .418 average against it.
The Rockies approach fastballs a little differently and might be able to help Junis maximize a fastball to induce weaker contact. If that could be the case, Junis could deliver 100 or more quality innings.
Option #2: Spencer Turnbull
Turnbull had quite the saga in Detroit finishing with a soured relationship toward the end of the 2023 season. Detroit optioned him this year after he struggled in return from Tommy John, though a neck issue popped up which allowed Turnbull to get his 6th year of service time, following what appeared to be a grievance filed through the MLBPA.
Prior to his Tommy John surgery late in 2021, Turnbull looked to be emerging as a quality starter. Between the start of 2020 and his surgery, Turnbull pitched to a 3.46 ERA in 106.2 innings with 95 Ks and 41 walks. He sat in the mid-90s with a quality fastball, spun a good slider, and even mixed in a sinker that would change looks on hitters.
Upon returning, Turnbull’s velocity still hasn’t quite returned and neither has the quality of his stuff. A fresh start with a new organization and another year to reboot his health might be what he needs to become a rotation option again.
The Rockies are, again, in a position where they’ll need to get creative to address their pitching staff and taking a shot on Turnbull with a low-risk contract could be just the way to make that happen.
Option #3: Erick Fedde
A former top prospect with the Nationals, Fedde was non-tendered after the 2022 season and elected free agency. He ended up in the KBO for the season and ended up as the league’s best pitcher and league MVP, fueled by a 2.00 ERA/0.95 WHIP and 209 Ks in 180.1 innings.
Fedde may remain overseas as he’s certainly established a strong market for his services but a return to MLB has been rumored, as well.
The former 1st round pick always threw enough strikes and flashed bat-missing ability at times in his career but he never fully established himself in 102 MLB appearances.
Fresh off a confidence boosting experience in the KBO, Fedde might finally be ready to put it all together as an innings eating MLB starter, exactly what the Rockies need.
Option #4: Eric Lauer
Lauer’s run between 2021 and 2022 saw him cement himself as a legitimate mid-rotation starter. Unfortunately, cracks formed and a shoulder injury appeared to ail Lauer much of 2023, leading to a 6.56 ERA and a loss of his spot on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster following the season.
Under the surface, Lauer’s velocity cratered (93.3 mph in 2022 -> 90.8 in 2023). This resulted in lackluster performance from his fastball and cutter which had formerly been quality pitches.
The lefty was already prone to walking a few batters per outing but this performance decline likely caused him to nibble more in hopes of compensating for his lesser stuff.
It seems fair to attribute his performance to the shoulder injury but it’s hard to ever be sure and Lauer’s on field product, before going on the IL, was not MLB quality. A bounceback seems pretty likely here and Lauer, like Turnbull will have to take a contract that poses little commitment to an MLB team.
Option #5: Vince Velasquez
Velasquez has always had great stuff, however, injuries have held him up. Most recently, Velasquez underwent Tommy John surgery in June and likely won’t pitch in an MLB game until sometime in August. Of course that means he’ll miss most of the season but the Rockies could ink a contract much like German Marquez‘s deal; an incentive laden deal that can cover two seasons.
Before Tommy John, Velasquez had a 3.86 ERA in 8 starts and looked poised for a breakout campaign. He sat 92-95 on his fastball and operated with a plus slider. In recent seasons, Velasquez traded some velocity for better control and it turned him into a more dependable starter, one that could help anchor the Rockies rotation later this season.
It might not seem like a wise fit to add yet another pitcher currently rehabbing from Tommy John but it could allow the Rockies to add an MLB starter for more than just this season below his market value.
Overall, Junis seems to make the most sense. Again, he might ultimately settle into a multi-inning relief role but that should be a welcome addition, given that Jake Bird ended up in that role and overused as the season waned. It lacks upside but if the Rockies want to keep their bullpen healthy and stay competitive in more games, finding a stable arm to soak up a large workload, Junis is the guy.
I’m also intrigued by Turnbull and Lauer as neither has the leverage to command a significant contract but both have the upside to end up as a rotation piece.
The Bullpen:
Bullpen additions are so much more speculative because there are so many available arms and there are tons of different ways to approach upgrades. Last year, the Rockies best relief addition, Brent Suter came via a waiver claim. Nick Mears also came via a waiver claim and appears to be a part of this team for the indefinite future.
With that being said, words will be saved here and I’ll just have some fun picking out a couple under the radar free agents.
To start off, Brent Suter will certainly be in the mix. He brought as much stability to the pitching staff as a single reliever could last year and the Rockies won’t be quick to forget that.
However, with a mostly stocked bullpen and some payroll uncertainty with the lack of a TV deal, it seems the Rockies will pursue less expensive options in the bullpen.
Disclaimer: I would’ve included fan favorite Adam Ottavino but he’s an east coast guy. I don’t think he wants to make a big move back out west unless there’s really no other option.
Option #1: Luis Garcia
We’re all at least vaguely familiar with the 11-year veteran Garcia following his two-year run with the Padres. With San Diego, Garcia’s 3.73 ERA and 23% K% solidified his status as a dependable reliever.
Garcia, about to turn 37, still pumps the heat, averaging 97.3 mph on his sinker. There are some concerns about the sudden drop in his K% to 19.9% which can be explained by a slight drop in slider performance. In 2022, Garcia’s slider was truly untouchable (.050 average against) but hitters had better results against in in 2023 due to a velo drop and some small changes in its shape.
Still, Garcia got quality overall results and produced an excellent 61.5% GB% (6th among pitchers with 40+ IP), which would have been, far and away, the best mark on the Rockies. Garcia will certainly garner interest from other clubs but doesn’t figure to come with a hefty price tag as his 2023 season places him in the large middle tier of bullpen free agents.
Garcia could slot in as one of the Rockies four or five best relief options and would give them added stability should hard throwing veterans Daniel Bard and Tyler Kinley not return to form.
Option #2: Tim Hill
Another member of the 2023 Padres, Hill was non-tendered following a disappointing season (5.48 ERA). There’s a much more bleak picture to paint here as Hill doesn’t have flashy stuff but somehow he’s an equally quality ground ball generator
Hill’s 61.2% GB% ranked 7th (>40 IP) and tells basically the entire story of why Colorado should kick the tires on a move here. It also helps that Hill is a lefty and can provide needed depth on that front.
https://x.com/Craig_Rose21/status/1000038662007021568?s=20
With Hill’s unsatisfactory 2023 in the foreground, a minor league contract is very much on the table here which is exactly why he’s option #2. Clearly, Hill may have lost the touch that made him a premium contact manager but bringing him in on a no-risk deal gives the Rockies a chance at finding a Brent Suter-lite.
Option #3: Trey Wingenter
You know I had to get a little bit creative with the final guy here. Also, what do you know? Wingenter came up with the Padres and soaked up 70 innings for them between 2018 and 2019.
After a 2020 Tommy John surgery, missed most of 2021 and then only pitched in the Dominican Winter League after the 2022 season. Wingenter returned with a bit of a vengeance in 2023 for the Tigers, striking out 22 in 17 innings, showcasing upper 90s velo, and posting a ridiculous 50.7% whiff rate on his slider.
Wingenter walked a few too many (7 in 17 innings) and didn’t generate a lot of ground balls but he’s another minor league contract candidate but comes with big upside as he continues to get reps.
Rarely will you find pitchers like Wingenter who are under 30, possess upside, and figure to come affordably. The Rockies present an attractive landing spot for someone like Wingenter simply looking to crack an MLB roster as he could immediately be in the mix for an Opening Day roster spot.
Wrapping Up:
If you came for flashy predictions, these were not them. For several reasons, the Rockies are unlikely to shop high-priced targets. The Rockies currently have a full 40-man, they have a lot of young players worth a look, they won’t be likely contenders in 2024, and the TV deal situation looms as a limitation on payroll.
Right now, what the Rockies need is stability, especially on the pitching side, so their younger players and foundational pieces don’t need to be overworked as we saw with Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird.
The hope will be that they add at least one more pitcher with the likelihood of impacting the MLB team but more likely two or three, as is enabled by minor league contracts.
The offseason is really starting to heat up now in preparation for the MLB Winter Meetings. Stay tuned for coverage of any transactions which will include the Rule 5 draft. Also, don’t forget about the MLB Draft lottery where the Rockies will have 18.3% odds of receiving the number 1 overall pick.
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