Tyler Paddor | @TyPaddor | February 22, 2024
The silver lining to the Rockies’ 59 win 2023 season will become more clear leading into and following July’s draft. With the draft lottery now in place, Colorado was tied with the Athletics and the Royals for the best odds at the number one pick in the MLB draft.
Fortunately for the Rockies, neither Oakland or Kansas City secured the top pick. Unfortunately, the lottery did lottery things and Cleveland and Cincinnati both moved up 9 spots from 10 and 11 into the 1st and 2nd slots, respectively.
Still, the 3rd pick is a hugely valuable asset. Perhaps more notably, given the lack of coverage, the Rockies bear an additional two top-50 picks. First, the Rockies will pick right after the 1st round in Competitive Balance Round A (38th overall) because they’re considered to be one of the 10 smallest markets in baseball.
The Rockies 2nd round pick happens to be right around the corner at 42. These three picks–of course–provide the opportunity to take three highly regarded players but they also afford the Rockies a unique opportunity from a monetary standpoint.
Playing the Slots
The MLB draft has a unique system. Instead of the draft being purely a balance of value and need, every pick is given a dollar amount, known as the slot value. The combination of each pick’s slot value equates to a team’s bonus pool. Teams are restricted to distribute signing bonuses within their bonus pool (though they are allowed a 5% overage).
Rather than the way drafts work in the NFL, NHL, NBA, or other leagues, teams can defer some money assigned to a certain pick and use it later in the draft or they can consolidate it earlier and spend above the slot value.
Every player comes into the MLB draft with their own valuation and they meet with interested teams to effectively negotiate their signing bonus before being drafted.
One player may say, “I’m worth more than $3 million and won’t sign for a penny less.” Then imagine, that player slips past pick 26–the final 2023 pick with a $3 million slot value or higher. Any team interested in drafting that player would have to spend over the slot value of their pick (“overslot”) and then have less money to spend on their other picks. Ultimately, that team would have to sign a player (or multiple) “underslot” later on.
Overall, for a team to draft a player in the first few rounds, there needs to be legitimate interest in that player and the team and player must be in financial agreement (or close to) before the selection is made.
The next wrinkle, explained in our recent Twitter thread, is the yearly increase of each pick’s slot value. Cutting to the chase, each pick’s slot value increases based on MLB’s revenue increase from the prior season. It has been reported that MLB’s revenue jumped to $11.6 billion, up roughly 12.4% from 2022’s 10.32 billion.
With those numbers in mind, every pick will now be slotted 12.4% higher in 2024 than in 2023 (example: a pick slotted at $1,000,000 will now be slotted for ~$1,240,000).
That’s a rundown on some of the MLB draft’s details. Now back to the Rockies specifically.
The Rockies Situation
The Rockies trio of top-50 picks gives them a rather large bonus pool. As we primered in the thread mentioned above, the value of that pool will come out to around $17.8 million dollars. For reference, the highest bonus pool ever before this season was $16.9 million (Orioles, 2022).
Here’s a pick by pick breakdown of roughly where the Rockies picks will be slotted:
1: $9,376,070
CB-A: $2,534,732
2: $2,299,591
3: $1,021,435
4: $702,275
5: $519,512
6: $393,343
7: $309,071
8: $246,212
9: $209,204
10: $194,002
Picks in rounds 3-10 come with an uncertain bonus since draft compensation for qualified free agents (Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, and Blake Snell) may still be awarded. Additionally, it’s worth noting that picks 11-20 do not contribute to the team’s bonus pool. Each pick in those rounds is defaulted $150k and any amount over $150k counts against the bonus pool, but any signings under 150k do not save the team money to spend elsewhere.
The Guardians are set to have an even larger bonus pool than the Rockies after winning the draft lottery and also holding a Competitive Balance Round A pick, but this is still an extraordinary opportunity for the Rockies to boost their farm system and set up a mid-to-late 2020s contention window with soon to be the second largest bonus pool of all-time.
Now onto the fun part, putting names on the table.
Number 3: A Sea of Options
As a draft nerd, this class is one for the ages. There is a huge talent group near the top that could conceivably be considered in the top 5. Of course, once the amateur season begins, more certainty will set in, but for now, it’s a frenzy trying to sort through the top 15-20 players. Our newest writer and draft guru, Luke, outlined some of the top options last week.
The Rockies have a ton of options and depending on their player preferences, they may be best served taking a player on an underslot deal so as to elevate their spending ability with their next two picks, effectively giving them two or three first round picks.
In terms of their first round pick, here’s a not-so-short list of players they could already have circled.
Hitters/Two-Way Players:
J.J. Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia
Wetherholt is my favorite in the class with elite contact skills and at least above average power. If he sticks at shortstop, he could be an elite player.
Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
Bazzana has a great approach, excellent bat-to-ball skills, average or better power, and plus speed. He’s the full package for a top of the order hitter.
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest
Kurtz has the best functional power in the draft and is an above-average hitter to boot; he’s got a chance to be one of baseball’s premier power hitters. The 1B-only profile is the only real downside.
Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida
Caglianone has the highest upside in this class by miles. It’s impossible not to think of Shohei Ohtani when you see the Florida superstar though he needs to put it all together on the field.
Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina
A legit five-tool center fielder, Honeycutt could be a Gold Glove player. He has an elite power season and quality pure hitting season under his belt, but is yet to put the two together at the same time.
Charlie Condon, OF, Georgia
Condon rakes. He’s got plus power and some of the best contact quality in the class. He could use to cut the whiffs and tighten his approach but the raw offensive skills are off the charts.
Braden Montgomery, OF/RHP, Texas A&M
An explosive athlete, Montgomery has big pop and averages 92.1 on the mound though he may be best served as a hitter only. He profiles as a 25+ homer guy with a sound approach but needs to reduce his swing and miss to enter top 10 consideration.
Tommy White, 3B, LSU
We all know White from his homer barrage as a true freshman at NC State. He’s a safe bet to consistently hit 30 homers in the pros with 40 homer upside, but the approach needs work.
Konnor Griffin, OF, Jackson Prep (MS)
Griffin is the kind of athlete that only comes around a couple of times per decade. He’s been in the mid-90s on the mound but is a legit 70-grade runner with plus power potential in a large frame and the tools to be a quality hitter.
PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC)
One of my sleepers for this pick, Morlando hits the ball extremely hard and makes a lot of contact. The only thing slowing him down is his defensive outlook though he could be fine in a corner-outfield spot.
Carson Benge, OF/RHP, Oklahoma State
I am a huge believer in Benge on both sides but he’s a definite high-end first round talent with the stick; he has big raw power that’s yet to show up in games consistently and sits 92-94 with three promising secondaries.
Pitchers:
Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest
Burns is somewhat of a household name because he routinely guns up to 101 with an electric slider and good command given the sheer power of his arsenal.
Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas
Smith will catch on as a top 10 prospect as the season progresses. He’s a mid-90s lefty with a dangerous slider and budding splitter. If he throws more strikes, he could be SP1.
Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa
Somehow more explosive than Burns, Brecht averages close to 98 and has a monster upper-80s slider. It doesn’t hurt that he throws a low-90s changeup. He wins the preseason best stuff award but has to polish his overall abilities.
Thatcher Hurd, RHP, LSU
Hurd has the pure stuff to pitch himself into the top 5 this year with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball heading his quality 4-pitch arsenal.
Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro HS (AZ)
Arguably the top prep arm in this year’s class, Caminiti could be a riser this year if his stuff keeps projecting. He’s a mid-90s lefty with command of a deep arsenal.
Verdict:
If the Rockies don’t want to get cute, Wetherholt, Bazzana, or Kurtz would be the smartest pick today. There’s time for others to join that tier but as of now those three offer huge present ability with limited risk.
Caglianone would be a shoot-for-the-stars pick that would be easy to get behind, too. Honeycutt and Condon could assert themselves into the mix. Griffin and Morlando are a big season away from commanding consideration for the number one pick, let alone a top 3 selection.
Burns would be a fine pick as he’s got insane stuff to go along with decent command but he might not be the safest or best talent available. However, it’s the kind of pick that could save some money and allow the Rockies to push in more chips with their next two picks.
Again, for more information on the more likely options, check out Luke’s breakdown.
Numbers 38 and 42
From above, all of the pitchers beyond Burns are potentially in play as overslot picks outside the first round, though college players are infrequently overslot candidates.
High school players can work the draft system to better fit their interests because they have the option of going to college instead of signing. Meanwhile, college players don’t want to spend a year they don’t have to in college and often lack leverage.
Overall, the Rockies would be wise to take a high school player with one of these two picks. First, high school players offer far more upside on average than their college counterparts–with the price being extra risk. Secondly, the Rockies have an extremely deep crop of prospects getting close to the big leagues and should stretch out the farm system’s timeline.
Here are some early season options:
High School Options:
Trey Gregory-Alford, RHP, Coronado HS (CO)
A Colorado product, Gregory-Alford has already touched 101 this offseason as he continues to make huge strides as an overall pitcher. The upside here is through the roof and the arm talent gives TGA a nice floor.
Levi Sterling, RHP, Notre Dame HS (CA)
A personal favorite, Sterling has great pitchability, projection in his frame, and two of the best breaking balls among prep arms this year.
Caleb Bonemer, SS, Okemos HS (MI)
Arguably the third best hitter in the prep ranks, Bonemer has a really clean swing, good feel for contact, and is showing plus power potential all while playing shortstop.
Joey Oakie, RHP, Ankeny Centennial HS (IA)
If you want to find arm talent, go look at the University of Iowa’s arms and commits. Oakie already sits in the mid-90s with a filthy slider.
College Options:
Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke
Power lefties will always draw eyes. Santucci’s mid-90s velo and two plus secondaries are enough to warrant a pick here. His clean delivery promises to control the ball well enough too.
Ben Hess, RHP, Alabama
Hess should be talked about as a top 20 pick. He averages 95 on his fastball, routinely gears up to 98, has three solid secondaries, and excellent command.
Michael Massey, RHP, Wake Forest
Wake Forest is becoming the most dominant force in college athletics for developing players. Massey saw a huge uptick in stuff last year after transferring in and now sits mid-90s with a devastating two-plane slider.
Luke Holman, RHP, LSU
Holman has a carrying fastball, power slider, and a curveball he commands well. If he takes a developmental jump at LSU, he could fringe on the first round.
Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina
East Carolina seems to produce an elite pitcher every couple of years with Yesavage the latest. He’s up to 98 with two unhittable breaking balls and a budding changeup.
Gage Jump, LHP, LSU
Another LSU transfer, Jump looked dominant at times as a freshman before undergoing Tommy John. He’s touched 97 and has one of the best breaking balls in the draft.
Tyson Neighbors, RHP, Kansas State
Neighbors has the floor of a lights out 8th inning guy but his mid-90s fastball and two plus breaking balls should get him a chance to start.
Wrap Up
Treat this like an early season draft guide and follow as many of the 27 above players as you can. The main takeaway are: the Rockies have a chance to put together a franchise-altering draft and this is a draft class loaded with premier hitters and college pitching depth.
The Rockies have a ton of resources to work with and should come away with three excellent ballplayers as they look to start righting the ship. Stick with us as this draft season unfolds!
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