Tyler Paddor and Luke Wortman | @TyPaddor & @Luke_W31 | March 13, 2024
Amateur baseball is well underway and with a decent look at this year’s draft prospects, it is time to kick off the main draft content coming from Blake Street Banter. Bi-weekly, we will post a stock watch looking into the performance of the nation’s top prospects.
Each installment will contain 10 main prospects at the forefront of consideration for the Rockies’ #3 overall selection and an additional five that are in the periphery. As the season progresses, we’ll expand the series to include players for the Rockies two additional top 50 picks, but we’re starting small for now.
While draft rankings are so difficult to nail down, we’ll do our best to rank these players every two weeks.
The Top 10:
1: Charlie Condon, 3B/OF, Georgia 🔥📈🚀
2024 Stats: .569/.670/1.308 (1.978 OPS) | 13 HR | 19.8 BB% : 11.0 K% | 90th EV: 111.8 mph
Before the season, gauging Condon was tough; he redshirted his freshman year before going nuclear in 2023 with 25 home runs and a 1.284 OPS. The Georgia slugger wasn’t without flaws; his bat to ball skills and swing decisions were just about average and there wasn’t a strong book on him as an outfield defender. Certainly though Condon had raw power that needed more showcasing.
Fast forward to the start of this season and Condon has 13 home runs through 18 games with an absurd 1.978 OPS. More importantly, through the early going, Condon’s contact rates are top of the line, as is his chase swing rate. It also appears the raw exit velocities are trending into territory that not many players in the world can match with balls frequently leaving Condon’s bat at over 110 mph. An interesting storyline to follow is Condon’s defensive home. The 6-foot-6 slugger has already seen time at 1B, 3B–where he’s looked impressive–both corner outfield spots, and even centerfield. If teams genuinely buy into Condon’s defense at a non-1B spot, there’s nothing stopping him from going 1st overall.
2: JJ Wetherholt, SS, West Virginia 🩼⚖️
2024 stats: .308/.438/.385 (.822 OPS) | 0 HR (1 XBH) | 18.8 BB% : 12.5 K% | 90th EV: 105.4* mph (including 2023)
Big asterisks are all over Wetherholt’s 2024 stats as he suffered a mild hamstring strain just 4 games into the season and will be making a return soon as conference play ramps up. Coming into the season, many saw Wetherholt as the best player in the class as an elite contact bat, above average power & speed, and the potential to stick at shortstop long term.
Without a big book on him this year and where he may improve his profile, Wetherholt is stagnated and prone to being passed by players like Condon and other hot starters. Still, nobody in this class blends elite bat-to-ball skills with above average–borderline plus–power like Wetherholt. If he sticks at shortstop, there is potential to be a very high end hitter in MLB and the risk is as low as any first round prospect. Keep an eye out for Wetherholt’s return to play.
3: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State 💪📈
2024 Stats: .450/.588/.900 (1.488 OPS) | 6 HR | 23.8 BB% : 12.5 K% | 90th EV: 110.6 mph
In a year filled with great college bats, Bazzana continues to impress. The Austrailian has started the season on a tear hitting .450 with 6 home runs. There isn’t a flaw in his game as all his tools are 50-grade or better. This year we’ve seen a huge uptick in the power profile with Bazzana boosting his exit velocity averages by substantial margins and already over halfway to his 2023 home run figure of 11 in about a quarter of the games. There’s been a touch more swing and miss than we’re accustomed to with Bazzana but his control of the zone has taken a step further.
If you want to nitpick his profile, he needs to build a stronger track record against secondaries and Bazzana most likely is just a second baseman at the next level. Regardless, there’s a ton of upside with his game and the Rockies should have Bazzana near the top of their wishlist.
4: Konnor Griffin, OF/RHP, Jackson Prep (MS) 📈🚀
2024 Stats (MaxPreps): .683/.791/1.268 (2.059 OPS) | 5 HR | 45 SB | 34.3 BB% : 4.5 K%
Griffin already had a full head of steam coming into this draft season as the most physically gifted high school player (and arguably overall player) in this class. Griffin has top of the line speed–potentially 80-grade–plus raw power, a solid hit tool, and a great defensive outlook at a strong-armed centerfielder. Apparently, he’s already set his high school’s record for stolen bases in just about half of the season. It doesn’t hurt that Griffin can also touch the mid-90s already and has been virtually unhittable on the mound (0.00 ERA, 39 K in 20 IP).
Potentially a two-way player at the next level, Griffin is a surefire elite offensive talent with the kind of assembly of tools we rarely see entering the professional ranks. The Rockies will likely chase a higher floor college player with this selection, but Griffin is posting video game numbers and is more than worthy of the 3rd overall pick.
5: Jac Caglianone, DH/LHP, Florida 🔥📈
2024 Hitting Stats: .412/.500/.647 (1.147 OPS) | 5 HR | 13.8 BB% : 8.8 K% | 90th EV: 118.8 mph
2024 Pitching Stats: 3 GS, 15.0 IP | 1.80 ERA, 0.867 WHIP | 14.3 BB% : 48.2 K% | Avg FB Velo: 94.7
Caglianone is truly worthy of the NCAA Shohei Ohtani title. We haven’t seen a prospect with legitimate star potential on both sides in a very long time; Caglianone is way more physical and overall more advanced than Brendan McKay on both sides of the ball. Though Caglianone’s 90th percentile exit velocity above is skewed by a small sample of games with advanced data, it does still showcase the legitimate 80-grade power that he possesses. The fact that Caglianone is flashing an improved feel for contact is a dangerous sign for any baseball player or team that opposes Caglianone. As a pitcher, his stuff has taken a step forward and Caglianone is showing better command, giving him a chance to start at the next level.
There have to be concerns about Caglianone’s willingness to expand the zone and still below average control but the physical ability is off the charts and Caglianone is pacing to have a ridiculous statistical year on both sides of the ball. Do the Rockies opt to try their hand at developing a two-way star?
6: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina ⚖️
2024 Stats: .357/.459/.657 (1.116 OPS) | 6 HR | 12 SB | 11.8 BB% : 24.7 K% | 90th EV: 107.1 mph
Honeycutt has started the season by hitting .357 with 6 home runs. All the tools are here but Honeycutt needs to refine them more, mainly his hit tool and plate discipline; his contact rates are around average while Honeycutt is expanding the zone too much. Honeycutt does already have double-digit steals and is on pace for over 40 this season.
The Rockies have a history of targeting toolsy hitters and Honeycutt fits that mold. The North Carolina outfielder has true 5-tool potential and would provide a ton of defensive value for the Rockies, given the vastness of Coors Field. Honeycutt’s glove is doing a lot of the lifting for him to remain this high up and he could use a hot streak to set his offensive numbers apart from the second tier of bats in this class.
7: Chase Burns, RHP, Wake Forest ⚖️
2024 Stats: 4 GS, 23.1 IP | 2.31 ERA, 1.029 WHIP | 11.2 BB% : 48.3 K% | Avg FB Velo: 98.1 mph
Burns has been living on highlight reels over the course of the season for good reason. His fastball gets into triple digits and he pairs it with a devastating slider. Burns also mixes in a harder cutter and a high-spin curveball to give his arsenal a better pro outlook. The Tennessee transfer has an amazing 48.3 K% to start the season, a significant improvement from last year’s 38.4%.
Burns has arguably the highest ceiling out of any pitcher in this draft and while there are some command concerns, he could be the future ace that the Rockies need. If he holds his pace season long, it’s hard to imagine the Rockies won’t give some serious thought to bringing in 2023 first-rounder Chase Dollander’s former teammate.
8: Hagen Smith, LHP, Arkansas 🔥📈
2024 Stats: 4 GS, 17.0 IP | 2.12 ERA, 0.765 WHIP | 10.8 BB% : 58.8 K% | Avg FB Velo: 95.8 mph
Smith recently made headlines for his dominant, 17-strikeout performance against Oregon State in which he recorded the first 16 outs via the K. The lefty uses a fastball that touches 100 which he combines with his funky delivery and low slot to create an impossible angle for hitters to be comfortable with. He can throw his bat-missing mid-80s slider and a mid-80s changeup for strikes as well, though he has hardly thrown the changeup this year and could benefit from flashing a deeper arsenal.
There’s a big arrow-up next to Smith’s name because of the hot start and he would be an intriguing option for the Rockies given his upside and high floor as a funk lefty with power stuff.
9: Nick Kurtz, 1B, Wake Forest 📉⌚
2024 Stats: .245/.474/.453 (.927 OPS) | 3 HR | 29.5 BB% : 15.4 K% | 90th EV: 105.3 mph
Talked about as arguably the best hitter in college baseball coming into this season, Kurtz hasn’t met those standards so far. Though Kurtz has walked a silly 29.5% of the time through 78 plate appearances because of his excellent plate discipline, he’s not finding the barrel like he did last season, leading to deflated power production. As a first-base only player, the pressure is on his bat to perform as there aren’t as many ways for Kurtz to impact the game.
On his current pace, Kurtz could fall off our top 10 targets for the Rockies or at least remain on the lower end, but it’s likely the Wake Forest superstar will find his footing and ascend back up a few spots.
10: Braden Montgomery, OF, Texas A&M 🔥📈🚀
2024 Stats: .403/.543/.871 (1.414 OPS) | 7 HR | 21.0 BB% : 14.8 K% | 90th EV: 112.2 mph
One of the early season’s biggest risers, Montgomery has taken well to player development in the SEC. The hulking switch-hitter has improved his bat-to-ball skills, now flashing above-average contact ability and is showcasing at least 60-grade power but arguably 70-grade on that front. Montgomery will be a solid defender in a corner-outfield spot and has a rocket arm. It doesn’t hurt that he sits in the low-to-mid 90s on the hill but that side of his game might not make it to the pros as Montgomery lacks quality command.
With continued performance like this, Montgomery will be firmly in conversations as a top-5 pick and could bring arguably the best raw power to the Rockies system.
The Next 5 Up
With our top 10 covered, let’s quickly hit on the next 5 players on the cusp of breaking into the top 10.
Seaver King, 2B/OF, Wake Forest ⚖️⌚
2024 Stats: .286/.329/.557 (.886 OPS) | 5 HR | 5.3 BB% : 13.2 K% | 90th EV: 108.3 mph
After two great years at Division II Wingate, King transferred to Wake Forest where he’s still finding his footing. He’s a solid defender that could play at shortstop, second-base, or centerfield long-term. He has super quick hands that allow him to post high-end exit velos and make a lot of contact. King can do a bit of everything and would be a solid option for the Rox, but his overall performance needs to improve a bit to be in play inside the top 3.
Trey Yesavage, RHP, East Carolina 📈🚀
2024 Stats: 4 GS, 24.0 IP | 1.13 ERA, 0.708 WHIP | 7.7 BB% : 42.9 K% | Avg FB Velo: 94.2 mph
Over the past two first rounds, the Rockies have taken right-handed college pitchers with good command and a strong track record in Gabriel Hughes (’22) and Chase Dollander (’23). If they want to continue this trend, they don’t need to look any further than Yesavage and his power fastball-slider combo. The East Carolina Pirate has had an amazing start to the year pitching to a 1.13 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 24 innings. That has been par for the course for Yesavage as he only has 1 recorded loss in his 3-year college career. He will need to keep pitching like he has been to go to the Rockies at 3rd overall, but Yesavage would be a low-risk, underslot pick for the Rockies and could get to the big leagues fairly quickly with number 2 starter upside.
PJ Morlando, OF, Summerville HS (SC) ⌚💪
2024 Stats (MaxPreps): 13 PA | .556/.692/1.000 (1.692 OPS) | 1 HR | 23.1 BB% : 0 K%
Morlando has as much upside as any hitter in this draft; it’s a picturesque swing with excellent feel for contact, a strong awareness of the strike zone, and 60-grade power. The South Carolina product isn’t a high-end athlete by the draft’s standards but he’s dabbling with center-field this year and should have no problem playing in a corner outfield spot. Morlando is one of those prospects who could quickly make teams regret not taking him sooner and the Rockies will at least give him consideration in the first round.
Mike Sirota, OF, Northeastern 📉❄️
2024 Stats: .250/.344/.357 (.701 OPS) | 1 HR | 12.5 BB% : 25.0 K% | 90th EV: 104.6 mph
Sirota came into the year as one of the blue chip prospects in this class, but he has struggled mightily this season. At his best, he’s a five-tool centerfielder who may not have as high of a ceiling as Honeycutt, but his floor is higher. Even when he was performing, there were concerns with Sirota as a mid-major prospect that swung and missed more than average. However, he crushed in the Cape Cod League (college baseball’s best summer league), and his stat line was great last season, with a .346 average backed by 18 home runs and 19 stolen bases. Due to his current performance, he most likely isn’t a target for the Rockies but if he can get back to playing like he did last season, Sirota could be a solid underslot candidate at the 3rd overall as a glove-first center fielder with plus plate discipline and above-average pop.
Jonathan Santucci, LHP, Duke 🐂🚩
2024 Stats: 4 GS, 19.2 IP | 2.29 ERA, 1.322 WHIP | 11.9 BB% : 41.7 K% | Avg FB Velo: 94.7 mph
The second hard-throwing lefty in the article, Santucci has some ground to make up to be considered as high as Hagen Smith. Still, mid-90s lefties are rare, especially ones with two plus breaking balls. Duke’s Friday arm has a clean and repeatable delivery, but needs to still reign in his command. Should Santucci find more rhythm throwing strikes, he has the talent and upside to be right in the conversation with Burns, Smith, and Yesavage.
That will wrap up our first Rockies stock watch. Keep these players in mind, but the next installment will start to get more fun as we track the progress of these players throughout the season.
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