Tyler Paddor | @TyPaddor |

Going into 2024, expectations for the Rockies are extremely tame. Instead of setting potential win-loss records, the hopes lie with certain players and their development.

There were some shining moments in 2023. Nolan Jones, Ezequiel Tovar, and Brenton Doyle formed a rookie trio to remember. Justin Lawrence, Jake Bird, and Brent Suter formed one of baseball’s best bullpen triads. The Rockies changed the narrative by trading five veteran pieces at the deadline. Finally, Ryan Feltner and Peter Lambert asserted themselves as potential pieces of the rotation going forward.

Otherwise, besides key veterans on the squad like Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon, Kyle Freeland, and Austin Gomber performing close to expected, it was a bleak season for Colorado.

If the club wants to establish their future and reign back in fan interest going forward, they need impactful on-field stories to take shape. We can all think of our own ways these stories can emerge–which is exciting on its own–but what are some of the more powerful and likely ones?

Nolan Jones: Written in the (All) Stars

Already beginning last season, the emergence of Nolan Jones made fans tune in a bit more. Had Jones gotten to play a full season and accumulate 600 plate appearances, his stats would’ve extrapolated to: 28 home runs, 28 steals, 31 doubles, and 5 triples, computing to 5.2 fWAR/6.1 rWAR.

His 5.2 fWAR would have tied Austin Riley for 14th among all position players in baseball and his 6.1 rWAR would have eclipsed Francisco Lindor and Shohei Ohtani for 8th. If Jones can perform like that again in 2024, he’ll easily be an All-Star and not just as the club’s default representative.

A lot rests on the shoulders of Jones. He’s easily the most talented player in the Rockies organization, considering floor and upside; he’s got huge power, excellent plate discipline, arguably the best outfield arm in baseball, and above-average speed. His best case outcome is a true superstar that could lift the Rockies back into relevancy.

The Details: Nolan Jones breaks 30 home runs, plays better defense, and finishes with over 5.0 WAR en route to his first All-Star appearance

Ezequiel Tovar: The Heir Apparent’s Crown (Glove) of Gold

Ezequiel Tovar can’t just let Jones take all the praise. In his own right, Tovar is supremely talented and just the next premier shortstop the Rockies have developed this century. Tovar’s 2023 season was marked with inconsistency–to be expected for one of the youngest players in the league–but the overall product was promising.

Tovar’s defense was legitimately Gold Glove quality. The youngster finished the season 2nd in dWAR, 4th in DRS, and 3rd in Outs Above Average among shortstops. As he gains more experience, some improvement could still be on the table.

On the other side, Tovar’s 37 doubles ranked 2nd among all MLB shortstops, his 15 home runs 15th, and 79 runs 10th. Tovar finished 19th in fWAR among shortstops. He was already one of the more stable producers at the position and looks primed for a better sophomore campaign.

It was no secret Tovar’s plate discipline was a weakness and that pitchers could overload him with breaking balls on the outer half. Tovar’s swing% ranked 3rd in MLB among hitters with 250 PAs. This left Tovar an unpolished hitter and makes his work clearly cut out for him.

If Tovar can craft a better approach for dealing with secondary pitches, his walk and strikeout rates should move in the right direction and his overall contact quality should increase. Even a marginal improvement on the offensive side could have Tovar playing like a top 10 player at the position, and possibly even higher should his power play up to produce between 20 and 25 home runs.

Tovar’s path to an All-Star game may be difficult with Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Matt McLain, and Ha-Seong Kim in the National League, along with rumors of Mookie Betts set to take over shortstop for the Dodgers, but a high-powered offensive first half could propel Tovar to the fall classic.

The Details: Ezequiel Tovar hits .280 with a .330 OBP and 23 home runs while winning the Gold Glove at shortstop

Young Bucks: Bucking the Trend

Even those that don’t keep up with the Rockies a lot should know the Rockies have stockpiled one of their best crops of prospects in club history. Each major list gives them roughly 3 top 100 prospects and there are another 3 or 4 that could very easily be on those lists as well.

What’s more exciting is that most of those prospects have already reached Double-A. In other words, a 2024 debut is on the table for over a dozen of the organization’s top prospects and at least a big handful of them will get their shot.

Picking who shines through is a difficult thought exercise, but imagine Adael Amador, Yanquiel Fernandez, Zac Veen, Jordan Beck, Drew Romo, and Sterlin Thompson all produce at their respective starting points. If even 3 or 4 of them hit the ground running, it will quickly appear as if the Rockies have the rest of their position player core knocking on the door.

Of that group, the Rockies really need Amador and Romo to click–they play premium positions, as indicated by the Rockies lack of prospect depth at their spots–and then a pair of those outfield prospects.

On the pitching side, Chase Dollander brings the highest quality pitching profile to the organization since Jon Gray. Otherwise, Joe Rock, Carson Palmquist, and Sean Sullivan provide three high-floor left-handed options. Jack Mahoney, Case Williams, and Anthony Molina represent the right-handed options with a chance to impact the big leagues sooner than later.

A trio of the organization’s best pitching prospects, Gabriel Hughes, Jordy Vargas, and Jackson Cox are all on the shelf for most of 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery but late season returns are not out of the question.

It seems likely the Rockies will find a future member of the rotation this year and it’s not crazy to think a pair or trio could emerge as rotation options as soon as the summer.

Painting with an optimistic brush, the Rockies are destined to wind up with a depth problem–the good kind where they are forced to make really tough roster decisions year long.

The Details: Adael Amador, Drew Romo, Zac Veen, Jordan Beck, Joe Rock, and Carson Palmquist debut in 2024

The Pitching Staff: In the Lab

There was plenty of discussion about the Rockies making strides from an analytical perspective, predominantly their new Lab™. Thomas Harding covered the new development technology here. To sum it up, the Rockies may finally have a path to catching up somewhat from an intensive analytics perspective.

Biomechanics are becoming such a big part of baseball development. As Harding notes in the above article, Elehuris Montero owes much of his late season success to a swing change, as recommended by a biomechanics firm. With the Rockies now able to handle some of this work in house, player development can become a more dynamic process, in the offseason and in-season.

Where this technology should pay bigger dividends, however, is the pitching side. While facilities like Driveline serve pitching and hitting clientele, their claim to fame came from pitching development. The Rockies still have ground to make up but they should be able to answer more questions around pitching going forward.

Let’s imagine a scenario where the pitching staff shocks the league in 2024. What would that look like?

For starters, Kyle Freeland looks like a top of the rotation arm again, as he’s sat between 92-93 in his Spring Training appearances versus the upper 80s we usually saw last year. Something closer to 2018 than 2023 would mean Freeland is as reliable as they come.

Beyond Freeland, Ryan Feltner has the upside to strike out over 150 batters (Freeland led the club with 94 last year) and emerge as a mid-rotation arm. Cal Quantrill is a year removed from a 3-year run with a 3.08 combined ERA and may find even another level with the introduction of a splitter.

Those three starters could give the Rockies a foundation that carries a sturdy rotation. If the rotation performs, it can take a lot of heat off the bullpen.

Is this the year we see Justin Lawrence stay sharp year long and assert himself as one of baseball’s best late-inning arms? What about Jake Bird flying high as a lockdown, multi-inning reliever? If one more young guy (Vodnik, Justice, Hollowell, Hill, Mears, Pint, etc) takes a big step forward, the Rockies will have one of the best bullpen trios in club history for years to come. That doesn’t even consider high-octane veteran Tyler Kinley.

The Details: Freeland & Quantrill post a sub 3.50 ERA, Feltner hits 150 Ks, Lawrence picks up 30 saves, Bird records a sub 3.00 ERA, and Jaden Hill & Evan Justice headline the bullpen’s breakthrough

Shutting the Light

Enough story time for now, time for bed.

With Rockies baseball coming off an all-time low, a storybook scenario is exactly what is needed to reinvigorate the baseball culture. If you could write your own 2024 story–bold or not–what would it be? Holler at us on Twitter.