Isaac Stevens | @coachfunnyman11 | March 22, 2024
The process and overall approach of choosing breakout players for the DSL is exceptionally different from full season ball (Single-A thru Triple-A). One of the main things to keep in mind is that they’re all teenagers (mostly), so a lot of the guys in the DSL aren’t close to physically mature yet. That’s why things such as mechanics and a feel for the game are accounted for while talking about such young players.
Also worth keeping in mind is that this isn’t all about signing bonuses; those players are expected to make an immediate impact and contribute. The three players featured are likely not known to the average fan, so this is a head start to grow your knowledge on the next generation of prospects!
LHP Luichi Casilla ($160K Signing Bonus)
Starting off, 19-year-old LHP Luichi Casilla is a top DSL breakout candidate. Casilla was born in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic, a location that has produced plenty of big leaguers; Miguel Andujar who finished second in AL Rookie of the year voting in 2018 (behind some guy named Shohei Ohtani), and former All-Stars Francisco Liriano and Raul Mondesi. As Casilla spent the last two seasons in the DSL, he’s shown flashes of promising projectability. He has a career 2.56 ERA in 63.1 innings pitched to pair with a 10.23 SO/9 in the DSL.
While the low ERA and high strikeout rates are telling, there’s a fuller story to depict. While his ERA was 2nd out of 18 Rockies DSL Pitchers from 2022-2023 (min. 30 IP), his WHIP (1.39) was 12th out of 18. The high WHIP is the result of a contradicting mixture of luckiness and unluckiness. Other stats such as FIP and xFIP suggest good fortune and that his ERA should be higher, explaining the high WHIP.
There’s a catch to that logic though, his career BABIP (batting average on balls in play) against is .360, whereas an average BABIP is .300. So any form of contact against Casilla has good odds at being a hit. In baseball terms, you can consider Casilla unlucky with regards to balls in play. Overall, with the full stat picture in mind, guys get a lot of hits off of Casilla (more lucky than not), but Casilla and his good pitching fundamentals managed to prevent damage. An example of a guy getting pounded by unluckiness in MLB is new Padres RHP Dylan Cease. In 2024, his WHIP was 1.42, but he still had good results with his efficiency and promising stuff.
Further, Casilla’s left-handedness is always a plus. He can also throw 97 MPH. There’s something extremely intriguing about a recently turned 19-year-old southpaw with good velocity. To side with Casilla’s success on the mound in multiple seasons it gives even more reason to be excited. Luichi Casilla will make his American debut this year, likely with the Arizona Complex League. As the Rockies work with Casilla to develop better secondary pitches to pair with his fastball, we will likely see great results for Casilla.
2B Bairon Ledesma ($50K Signing Bonus)
My second pick for a DSL breakout, 18-year-old IF Bairon Ledesma, out of Pinar Del Rio, Cuba has promising upside. There has been a long history with Cuban players having trouble playing in America (more here if interested), and long story short, players can’t sign at as young of an age as players out of the Dominican Republic. So when players are signed, most only play just one season in the DSL before being brought up to America so their development isn’t slow and stunted. Recent examples include OF Yanquiel Fernandez, SS Dyan Jorge, OF Aldalay Kolokie, and now IF Bairon Ledesma who all only played one season in the DSL.
Ledesma certainly impressed in his first and only DSL season. He amassed a .355/.406/.848 slashline in 206 at bats, leading the DSL in total hits (69), with 3 homers and 19 steals mixed in. Seeing guys absolutely slug it out in the DSL is always a good sign and is a requisite for future success. He also walked more than he struck out in 2023, which is another sign of future success. Ledesma killed it in the batter’s box in 2023, and with performance like that it, 2024 success seems extremely likely.
The biggest–essentially only–setback for Bairon Ledesma is his lack of size. Standing just 5’9”, and 180 pounds, he doesn’t have the most size in the system though at a young age, some growth may still be in the cards. However, there are parts to his game where size shouldn’t be a major setback.
Watching Ledesma, every swing he takes is lightning fast. He gets to inside pitches quickly, supported by the fact that over 50% of his batted balls are pulled. As he progresses through the minors and sees better pitching, the batted ball profile may level out. It makes it much more important for Ledesma to be patient at the plate since he doesn’t have much power projection due to his lack of size. To really utilize Ledesma’s offensive potential, it’s key for him to take more pitches, and not be so aggressive early in the count once he starts facing better pitching. Getting on base, and then using his above average speed is small shortstop 101 and Ledesma fits the mold. The signs are there that Ledesma will thrive in the minors’ lower levels and hopefully beyond.
3B/SS Kelvin HIdalgo ($500K Signing Bonus)
My last DSL breakout candidate is 19-year-old 3B/SS Kelvin HIdalgo (capital i). HIdalgo was born in Santiago, Dominican Republic. I mentioned trying to avoid players with big signing bonuses and showcase some of the lesser know prospects but, I am making an exception here. HIdalgo won the DSL Most Valuable Player in 2023, and deservingly so. He had a .310/.406/.574 slash line, with 12 home runs (2nd most in the DSL), while also stealing 14 bags. He showed the best power and speed combination in the entire Dominican Summer League.
HIdalgo’s build stands out; the guy is a unit. He stands at 6’4”, and 166 lbs, moving great for his size. He recently turned 19, so there is plenty of time for him to fill out. When guys gain weight it’s common to lose some quickness, but the power in their bat can improve as a result. The power potential has got to be up there with the likes of Rockies prospects Yanquiel Fernandez and Hunter Goodman. During his time in the DSL, HIdalgo has also shown impressive hit skills. There is legit offensive potential, and it should be talked among the organization’s top grouping of prospects.
HIdalgo seems slated for the Arizona Complex League, and depending on how comfortable he is, we can see a promotion to Single-A Fresno. The jump from the DSL to ACL is one of the biggest in all of minor league baseball, so it’s common for players to regress offensively. I don’t think HIdalgo is a typical player, he’s truly an elite lower level prospect with some of the most intriguing tool sets in all of MiLB. It’s tough to label HIdalgo as a “raw prospect,” as his swing and approach are elite for his age. It’s moreso about exposure and putting up numbers now that he’s out of the DSL to get recognition. Putting it simply, Kelvin HIdalgo is awesome.
Wrap Up
Now that the Arizona Complex League season is starting a month earlier, it will give all the new DSL players more opportunities (if interested in reading about the ACL starting earlier, this is a great article here). Prospects from the DSL will get more at bats and innings pitched, and can really prove what they bring to the table before the 2024 draftees get assigned to the ACL.
There is minimal information about DSL players available other than their statistics and general biographical info, so things such as scouting reports and personal information aren’t known with a quick internet search. They do cool stuff and they’re gonna keep doing cool stuff in the ACL and further in 2024.
Thank you for reading!
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