With Opening Day less than a week away, the Rockies have finalized their starting rotation for the beginning of the 2024 season. The newest starting five is a breath of fresh air for fans who endured the disastrous and injury-plagued 2023 season for the Rockies.
Kyle Freeland will once again lead the rotation when the season begins Thursday against the Diamondbacks. Joining him as part of the starting five are off-season acquisitions Cal Quantrill and Dakota Hudson, along with familiar faces Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner. The odd man out, righty Peter Lambert, will begin the season serving as a long-reliever.
This group of pitchers is an obvious improvement over last year. Jose Urena is gone from last year’s season-opening rotation, while German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela will still require ample time to heal from their off-season Tommy John surgeries. The additions of Hudson and Quantrill will provide experience on the bump and hopefully bring plenty of quality starts in place of the injured Marquez and Senzatela.
What’s most exciting here is that everyone in the rotation has something to prove. Can Freeland and Quantrill return to the successful forms they’ve shown before? Can Gomber and Hudson remain consistent with the flashes of high-quality performances previously seen in years past? Is Ryan Feltner ready to take the next step and handle the workload of an entire season?
It’s a low-risk, high-reward situation for the Rockies in a season where the expectations for success are scraping the bottom of the barrel. Pitching at mile-high has always come with troubles, but 2024 may be the year where the rotation that’s already been written off by many can gain the respect and recognition they deserve. If the Rockies can get some quality production out of their starters, it would go a long way towards showing organizational progress when you consider this rotation is loaded with reclamation projects of varying degrees. Here’s what to expect from each individual arm.
LHP Kyle Freeland
The home-town kid will turn 31 in less than two months, but Freeland is attempting to put forth a 2024 campaign reminiscent of his former-self. Remember Kyle Freeland from 2018? He finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting that year. A 17-7 record. 2.85 ERA. 202.1 IP. A 7.7 WAR. This kind of output has been elusive for Freeland to find since, and given the Rox roster, it may be difficult for Freeland to achieve this tremendous statistical output in 2024.
However, his performances throughout Spring Training have many wondering what version of Kyle Freeland will be on the mound this year. At the very minimum, Freeland is the Rockies most valuable pitcher solely based upon the workload he can carry barring any injury. He’s consistent and dependable, with an average of 164.7 IP and 112.5 SO since the 2022 season, more than any other Rockies pitcher during that time frame. The same is to be expected from Freeland this year, with his vast variety of pitches including a changeup, sinker, knuckle curve, four-seam fastball, and a slider that has been growing in use since 2020. He’ll once again lead the charge; will he do so as vintage Kyle Freeland?
RHP Cal Quantrill
Much like Freeland, Cal Quantrill finds himself at a bit of an impasse, in serious need of a bounce back. Two years ago, Quantrill finished the season in Cleveland with a record of 15-5 and an ERA of 3.38 across 186.1 IP. The 2023 season saw his ERA rise to 5.24 and record fall to 4-7. His percentile rankings during 2023 placed him in the bottom 5% of the league for xBA (.291) and xERA (5.85). Right shoulder inflammation held Quantrill out for a majority of last year, but his return for the Guardians in September offered a hopeful glimpse of Quantrill’s ability to recreate his 2022 outings.
Could 2023 have been a fluke for Quantrill? Is there anything the Rockies should be concerned about given his injury history? It makes sense for the Rockies to have acquired Quantrill. The worst-case scenario for the Rockies finds Quantrill on the IL for the majority of 2024. Yet, Quantrill has true starter’s arsenal. He relies on his sinker 41.4% of the time, along with his cutter (24%) that he debuted in 2021. There’s a new splitter in development that will complement Quantrill’s curveball as another out-pitch. Let Cal utilize the movement in his pitches and, given the ample amount of opportunities he’ll see this season, he may just find success again. To repeat, it’s a low-risk, high-reward scenario. A cost-effective gamble.
LHP Austin Gomber
While Gomber will always be tied to the Nolan Arenado trade, the lefty began to find his form during 2023. A tumultuous start to 2023 had many fans wanting Gomber sent to Albuquerque as he went 0-4 in his first four starts, amassing an ERA as high as 12.12. But when the injuries began to pile up for the Rockies starting pitchers, Gomber stepped up. His 139 IP last season was second on the team to Kyle Freeland (155.2). On paper, Gomber’s season—and overall career—hasn’t been anything that lives up to his billing as a centerpiece of the Arenado trade.
It’s the inconsistencies in Gomber’s game that have seemed to plague him. Gomber went on a stretch from June 14th to August 11th of last season where he did not allow more than four runs in a game. While that may be a laughable stat for other organizations, for the Rockies, that’s not half bad. Still, what caused Gomber to stumble throughout the 2023 season was his 4-seam fastball. His -19 Run Value was fifth worst in the MLB for qualified pitchers with the same pitch. Not great, especially when you take into account the number of pitches thrown for his fastball was 948 and his second-highest was his slider at 433. Ultimately, the lack of velocity on Gomber’s fastball leaves him needing to find craftier ways to attack hitters.
Reliability is great, but there are plenty of warm bodies the Rockies could send to the mound, and in a division where every other team has a plethora of talent, consistency is going to be the biggest factor for Gomber’s 2024 season being a successful one.
RHP Dakota Hudson
Another former Cardinal; are we beginning to see a pattern here? The former first-round draft pick cruised through the Cardinals system and had an incredible 2019 season where he went 16-7 with an ERA of 3.35 and 136 SO, averaging 94.1 mph on his fastball. Hudson may seem like yet another pitcher years-removed from his success, but he’s been on quite the journey since that 2019 season. In 2020, Hudson had Tommy John surgery. He’s clawed his way through rehab and the minor leagues. He’s battled issues with pace and control in his game. Maybe a change of scenery is exactly what Hudson needs. So the question remains, is Colorado the place where a pitcher can find their game once again? The harsh reality of playing at mile-high is how often pitchers struggle with the altitude. Hudson relies heavily on his sinker, slider, and four-seamer, with his fastball and offspeed velocities seeing a steady (albeit small) drop each year; he simply hasn’t regained the arm strength he had early in his career but if he can induce a hefty dose of ground balls, there may be a lede here.
Hudson has stated that belief in himself is key to returning to the form he had five seasons ago, and so Rockies fans should have no trouble rooting for Hudson even if his pitching is not as successful as Hudson and the Rockies want it to be. With Marquez out until after All-Star break at the minimum, Hudson’s a worthwhile replacement, with a ceiling that could pay dividends for the Rockies on the field.
RHP Ryan Feltner
Feltner’s story is no secret. At 27-years-old, Feltner is the youngest pitcher in the starting rotation, but his age is no indication of the path he’s been on. Feltner fractured his skull in May of the 2023 season. It was a frightening injury, one that manager Bud Black predicted would force Feltner out for several months, if not the remainder of the season, even putting the young pitcher’s career in jeopardy. Yet nearly four months later, Feltner made his triumphant return to the mound.
Feltner has shown the most promise out of any Rockies pitcher in some time. Since 2021, Feltner’s game has continued to improve. Velocity on his fastball and offspeed pitches have steadily increased while his average exit velocity against sat at a low 86.1 mph for the 2023 season. His arsenal of the slider, fastball, sinker, changeup, and curveball is diverse and keeps him unpredictable for hitters.
2023 did not go the way Feltner wanted, but he isn’t letting the injury hold him back. The sample size of Feltner’s performances may be small over the span of his career, but beginning the season as part of the starting rotation is exactly how he will grow. The Rockies may reap the rewards of their belief in Feltner if all goes according to plan, and even if it doesn’t, the Rockies are not aiming for a pennant, so we might as well prepare for the future, now.
The Rockies starting rotation is full of promise, the need for redemption, and doubt, to be blunt. There will always be unforeseen change due to injury as there is every season, but clearly the Rockies are choosing to believe, not only in themselves, but the arms of starting pitchers which other teams let leave their organizations for next to nothing. This rotation may seem like a collection of misfit toys standing on the mound of Coors Field, but they are far from that. They are resilience incarnate. They are commencing the journey of the 2024 season with something to prove against all odds.
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