Louis Taggart | June 15, 2024

Juan Guerrero, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2018 for $650,000, was the highest-ranked Rockies international signee in the 2018-2019 cycle, one that included the likes of Warming Bernabel and Angel Chivilli. Guerrero was signed as an athletic shortstop with a rocket arm and a sweet, easy swing. Now, Guerrero has progressed to a corner outfield role and is amidst his best season in pro ball. 

Scouting Report

Juan Guerrero has become an overlooked player in the Rockies farm system after sitting on the Top 30 lists for a couple of years. Although he hasn’t developed the power some hoped, he has still found a productive skill set and role.

Despite his quality athleticism, Guerrero isn’t refined as a defender, but has the tools to massively improve, and could profile as an above-average corner outfielder. His athletic profile gives him remarkable potential on the base paths. This potential is being tapped into in the 2024 season, as Guerrero is a perfect 15-15 when stealing bases.

As a hitter, he has embraced his aesthetic swing and sacrificed walks, a part of his game that was already lackluster. This has seen Guerrero become more productive on balls in play, though consistent power production still evades him. Guerrero has talent on the field, but his best trait might be his ability to stay on it. Since he was assigned to the ACL back in 2021, he hasn’t been put on the IL and the only bloop was a three-day stint on the “temporarily inactive list”. He’s a true Iron Man. 

Career So Far 

In 2022, Guerrero got his first taste of the full-season minor league ladder. He came into the season as a big-time Rockies prospect with high expectations, ranking as high as the 24th-best prospect in the system. The 20-year-old spent the whole season in Single-A Fresno to get his feet under himself. During this season, he spent the majority of his starts in the corner outfield, but played center field a couple of times, showing the confidence in his athleticism and future defense.

The underlying slash line of .274/.335/.437 with 14 home runs and 18 stolen bases jumps out but doesn’t account for the California League park factor. His season-ending WRC+ was 97, meaning he was right around average.

After the promising 2022 campaign, the Rockies organization decided a full season of High-A ball would be deserved. He now sat between 15-25 on most Rockies prospect rankings. The promotion meant Guerrero would have to go from one of the most hitter-friendly leagues in the California League to one of the least hitter-friendly in the Northwest League.

This season was not one of triumph for Guerrero, a weird year that saw him brutally struggle down the stretch after getting off to a hot start. His slash line of .256/.314/.374 was a substantial downgrade from the year before. Not only did his rates decrease, but Guerrero lost the consistent home run power, knocking just 6 in 112 games.

Going into 2024, it was known that this would be a big year for Guerrero. The mixture of subpar results in Spokane and a log jam on the outfield kept him in Spokane for the beginning of the year and left him needing to re-prove himself as he fell off every mainstream top 30 prospect list.

Guerrero is taking that second chance in Spokane and righting all of his wrongs. Through 53 games, he’s slashing .298/.315/.419 with a perfect 15-15 stealing record. Despite his BB% being one-third of the prior season, he has used that to accumulate a WRC+ of 109. The difference between last year and this year is stark. He has much more confidence this season and is a more aggressive hitter because of it; for some hitters, being aggressive plays better to their strengths.

Juan Guerrero’s Future Projection

Guerrero has now played 165 games in High-A Spokane and is seemingly ready to make the jump to Double-A. He’s growing as a hitter and still hasn’t found the perfect approach for his skill set, though progress is undeniable. Guerrero won’t breeze through Double-A Hartford, but he could fight through the struggles and become a Bladimir Restituyo-esque player; an asset in the field and on the basepaths with a good feel for contact. While Guerrero isn’t a flashy player, he has a chance to reassert himself as valuable depth to the organization with a chance to crack a big league roster as a 4th outfielder.

Keep an eye on Guerrero and his talent as this season progresses. It will be very telling whether the Rockies elect to promote him with the inevitable mid-season wave of MiLB roster shuffling.

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