Tyler Paddor | @TyPaddor | July 25th, 2024
One month ago, we released a trade deadline primer, highlighting all the potential trade candidates the Rockies have to offer. With the deadline approaching in less than a week, it’s time to revisit those candidates and paint a new picture of what the deadline may look like.
In the last month, we saw Dakota Hudson DFA’d (though he could technically still be traded), Elias Diaz suffer another minor calf injury and navigate through a slump, Cal Quantrill face his first bumps since early in the season, and a resurgence from Tyler Kinley and Jalen Beeks, among other storylines.
All in all, this is to say not much has changed since late June and the Rockies will still be active on the trade front in the coming days.
More Likely Than Not
For a variety of reasons, the expectation should be that these players garner heavy interest and that the Rockies pull the trigger on a deal, even if they’re not getting exorbitant value.
Cal Quantrill
As mentioned above, Quantrill has skidded a bit lately, giving up 21 runs in his last 6 starts, though 4 of those outings were in Coors Field after making just 4 starts at Coors in his first 14 Rockies appearances.
Teams likely aren’t holding this rough patch heavily against Quantrill and will certainly be interested, though his value has certainly dropped a rung. Lesser potential returns reduce incentive for the Rockies to close a deal, but there’s no denying there will be a seller’s market for starting pitchers worthy of making a postseason start.
The Rockies should still be able to receive a pair of top 20 prospects from a team. Rotation needy clubs include the Guardians, Brewers, Mets, Astros, Yankees, Rays, Rangers, Cardinals, and basically every other contending team under the sun with the exception of the Mariners.
With so many teams in the mix and so few impact starters available, teams will almost certainly raise their offer to meet the Rockies demands.
Elias Diaz or Jacob Stallings
The or is important here as it’s hard to envision the Rockies completely upheaving their catching corps in the middle of a season. Surely after the deadline, there will be more young arms taking the hill and a veteran catcher should be on the roster to greet them.
Fortunately for Colorado, the Stallings signing has been a tremendous success and either gives the Rockies a solid trade chip or a sturdy option to lean on in the wake of a Diaz trade. Preferably, the latter takes place as Diaz is a bit more high profile at this stage in his career, respective to Stallings, and is an impending free agent while Stallings does have a mutual option for next year.
It’s a certainty every year that a handful contending clubs will at least look to make a move to upgrade their backup catcher spot and both Diaz and Stallings offer that potential and more.
The Rangers have received abysmal production from their catchers while the Pirates, Padres, Rays, Phillies, Red Sox, Guardians, and more may be in the market to get an upgrade to either their starting or backup spot.
Diaz’s value is certainly a little shaky as he’s in the midst of a 44 wRC+ stretch since June 6th, though his defense has certainly been an asset this year. Stallings has remained steady, though less spectacular, offensively and is a proven backstop. Either would likely net a prospect in a team’s 25-40 range.
Jalen Beeks
After having the closer role foisted upon him, Beeks struggled mightily. We saw Beeks primarily as a setup man early in the year and again more recently and that’s a role he’s performed more steadily in.
In save situations, Beeks has a 7.06 ERA versus a stellar 2.93 ERA in non-save situations. Much of that is predicated on fewer walks in lower leverage situations–a phenomenon that you can’t blame any pitcher for. The 9th inning is a different beast, especially when the game is on the line.
Aside from the situational splits, Beeks still brings mid-90s velocity from the left-side and a cutter that has been good, plus a changeup that has performed better away from Coors Field and been his go-to pitch for years. Teams will see the competitive stuff and see a potential 6th or 7th inning lefty.
There is always a premium on left-handed pitching at the deadline, especially for arms that could viably make a team’s postseason roster. Expect there to be plenty of calls on Beeks with a chance to get a return a notch below what the club received for Pierce Johnson last year (Victor Vodnik and Tanner Gordon).
There’s a Chance
Here we have players that will certainly get some interest, though a trade isn’t exactly likely for a variety of reasons whether it be contractual, performance based, or deal with the Rockies willingness to make a deal.
Tyler Kinley
Kinley has had a brutal start to the year, rediscovering the form that made him a dominant reliever in 2022. He has struggled with command mightily and doesn’t have the fastball shape to avoid damage a lot of the time, if it’s not located.
However, we may be seeing Kinley turn a corner. The hard-throwing righty hasn’t allowed a run in his last 5 appearances, issuing just one walk in that time. More importantly, since June 30th (11 IP), Kinley has a 3.27 ERA with 12 Ks, and all 4 runs given up coming in one game. Clearly, he’s pitching better of late and it couldn’t be at a better time.
Beyond poor season-long numbers, Kinley is under contract next year, increasing his inherent risk and, otherwise, requiring the Rockies to dish out cash to accommodate the deal, as whatever money Kinley is making will be viewed as underwater value.
This appears to be similar to the Pierce Johnson situation last year. A trade of Johnson was not expected, though the Braves acquired him for what they thought he could be, rather than what he had been with the Rockies. Overall, don’t expect a deal to be made here, but also don’t be totally shocked.
Austin Gomber
The Rockies don’t want to trade Gomber, as he has one more year of team control and has proven to understand pitching at altitude. However, the club will be willing to trade him, should the right offer come their way.
That’s the hingepoint here and why Gomber isn’t as likely of a trade chip as Quantrill; the Rockies price will be high and teams may be less willing to meet it for a pitcher that averages 90.5 mph on his fastball.
Still, Gomber has proven to be a master of control and generally a good sequencer of his 4-pitch arsenal and is to be viewed as a potential 5th starter by an assortment of teams. The question of whether they’d turn the ball over to him in a playoff start is another story.
This a complex trade case and for that reason, a trade seems somewhat unlikely. If the Rockies find a suitable trade package, expect it to be somewhat substantial–like the proposed Quantrill one–as starting pitching will not come cheap this year.
Jake Cave
Cave has proven himself as a viable role player. Role players get lost in the shuffle as most of the headlines surround shiny new starting players for teams, but clubs are also open to getting a legit bench player, too.
In comes Jake Cave. Cave offers good corner-outfield defense, a viable bat against right-handed pitching, speed, and of course, he’s a man of the people.
If the Rockies find a Cave suitor, think of the Mike Moustakas or Brad Hand returns last year where the Rockies added a low-end pitching prospect.
There Have Been Bigger Surprises
We’ll keep these short and sweet as they’re unlikely trade candidates, but there’s a decent or better chance their names are mentioned on calls this week.
Brendan Rodgers
Rodgers is most likely to be sought after by another team. He’s got a Gold Glove and the draft pedigree to indicate there is still untapped potential here. However, his inability to produce consistently places his value in a precarious spot where the Rockies will likely hold onto him and play this saga out another year.
Dakota Hudson
Though Hudson was DFA’d, he accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A. It’s important to note that basically every team could’ve had Hudson either at his minimal salary or for a no-name prospect/cash considerations. He’s been through the motions, yet is still in the Rockies organization so don’t expect teams to all of a sudden be interested.
Ty Blach
Like Hudson, Blach won’t excite teams. He’s clinging on to a roster spot by his fingers and has shown cracks as the season has gone on. Could a team look to pick up 20 innings down the stretch and save their more regarded players? Maybe. A big maybe.
Sam Hilliard
Hilliard has returned to the Rockies with a bang. He’s already hit 3 homers in his first 20 or so games, has stolen a trio of bags, and provides competent or better defense at all three outfield spots. Like Jake Cave, there may be interest in a role player here, though the league knows just how volatile Hilliard’s production can be.
Sean Bouchard
Bouchard finds himself in limbo. He was just optioned to make space for Kris Bryant and will be in real jeopardy once Jordan Beck returns and down the stretch as the Rockies plan to make space for top positional prospects on the 40-man like Zac Veen and Drew Romo.
Prior to this year, Bouchard had maximized every possible opportunity. Though he’s struggled this year to the tune of a 55 wRC+, you can’t rule out that a non-competitive team might want to take a flyer on him and give Bouchard more playing time down the stretch.
Practically Impossible
Is any player truly untouchable? On this Rockies team, the answer is no. If the perfect storm was to arrive, the following players could be traded, though the odds of that happening are next to none.
Charlie Blackmon
There’s mutual interest for Blackmon to be a member of the Rockies for life. Why spoil that near the finish line, especially when trade interest will be sparse?
Nick Mears
Despite his mid-5s ERA, Nick Mears has proven himself as a viable backend reliever. His ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) range from good to great as he’s a dynamic strikeout pitcher with a premium curveball.
Ryan Feltner
It’s no secret Feltner struggles at Coors. This year he has a 6.14 ERA at home versus a 4.43 ERA out on the road, in line with his career marks. He’s low-hanging fruit for another team to get an under the radar backend starter, but the Rockies have zero incentive to move a promising arm with 4 years of team control ahead.
How Hot Does the Stove Get?
It’s hard to imagine 4 trades are made like last year (Moustakas, Johnson, Cron/Grichuk, and Hand). However, this is a new era of Rockies decision making and the last 2 years have not resembled the norm for this organization.
As predicted in our first look at the trade deadline, expect a pitcher and one of the catchers to go; most likely Quantrill and Diaz, though any sort of combinations are also possible.
If the Rockies do decide to be ultra-aggressive sellers and swing 3 or 4 trades, they will deserve to be commended for giving this farm system a notable second-to-last infusion of prospect talent (2025 draft will be the last) before a potential competitive window opens up in 2026 and beyond.
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