Noah Spirek | @Noah Spirek | December 5, 2024

Wait, what? Seriously?

It sounds far-fetched, but let’s entertain the idea in light of recent news coming out of St. Louis.

In a recent article for The Athletic, Katie Woo reported that Nolan Arenado is willing to move away from third base to create roster flexibility for his next team as the Cardinals head toward a rebuild. It’s somewhat of an odd report given that Arenado’s defense at third base has kept an above average player while his bat has seen a marked decline over the last two seasons.

With Arenado open to changing positions, the Rockies have an opportunity to make an offseason splash, and a funny one at that.

Of course, Arenado and Colorado share some history.

On February 1, 2021, the Rockies finalized a trade of Arenado and $51 million to the Cardinals for LHP Austin Gomber, INF Elehuris Montero, INF Mateo Gil, RHP Tony Locey, and RHP Jake Sommers. That was 1,403 days ago. Today, Gomber is the only piece from that deal still in the Rockies organization.

Perhaps it is time for Nolan and the Rockies to have a reunion.

Factors to Consider

Arenado could be slated for first base with his next team, a scenario that would be welcomed with the Rockies. In 2024, Colorado ranked dead last in MLB with -2.2 fWAR at first base between four players: Michael Toglia (408 PA), Elehuris Montero (199 PA), Kris Bryant (41 PA) and Hunter Goodman (13 PA). That played a large part in the team’s collective 4.7 fWAR, ranked second-worst in all of baseball and ahead of only the 41-win Chicago White Sox.

ZiPS projects the Rockies to roll with Michael Toglia and Kris Bryant at first base in 2025 and combine for 0.5 fWAR. With the retirement of Charlie Blackmon, it is very likely that Bryant will spend most days as the designated hitter, leaving the younger half as the starter at first base. However, Toglia has fallen victim to inconsistencies early in his career.

The former UCLA Bruin played in 45 games in 2023, slashing .163/.224/.284 with four homers in 152 plate appearances. He totaled -1.1 fWAR with a 32.9% strikeout rate and a 6.6% walk rate.

Toglia’s struggles continued at the start of 2024. Prior to being optioned to Triple-A Albuquerque in late April, the 2019 first-round pick slashed .106/.143/.362 with 20 strikeouts in 47 at-bats over 14 games. After opening his season 2-for-8 (.250), Toglia endured a 3-for-39 slump, leading to his demotion.

Following the tune-up assignment, Toglia returned to the Rockies on June 6 and found his stride. Over the final 101 games of the season, he hit .233 with a .331 OBP, 21 homers, and 47 RBI. He finished his age-25 season with a .218/.311/.456 slash line and 25 home runs, second-most on the club.

Statistically, Toglia’s profile is an enigma. While his barrel percentage, hard-hit rate, and walk rate are among the top 9% of hitters, his 34.9% whiff rate and 32.1% strikeout rate both rank in the bottom 4%. Toglia can produce in bunches, but he’s also vulnerable to extreme dry spells.

Toglia is set for his age-26 season. Though he’s still a work in progress, there was significant improvement in 2024.

Among Rockies players with 300+ plate appearances in 2024, Toglia ranked:

• 1^st in OPS (.767 OPS)
• 2^nd in HR (25)
• 2^nd in SLG (.456 SLG)
• 2^nd in walks (54)
• 2^nd in stolen bases (10)
• 4^th in RBI (55)
• 6^th in OBP (.311 OBP) (Of the five ahead of him, only three remain with Colorado.)

Over in the NL Central, Arenado experienced a difficult 2024 campaign. In 152 games, Arenado slashed .272/.325/.394 with 16 homers and 71 RBI. Since 2015, those totals mark career-lows over his last eight 162-game campaigns.

Despite struggling on offense, Arenado still brings the defensive ability to compete for a Gold Glove. Upon entering the league in 2013, Arenado won 10-straight Gold Glove Awards at third base. After failing to be a finalist in 2023, he returned as one in 2024 before his former El Toro High School teammate Matt Chapman took home the hardware.

Conclusion

Ultimately, it is hard to imagine Arenado returning to the Rockies after the way their marriage ended in 2021. Besides, it makes little sense for either side as Arenado is looking to earn a World Series ring and Colorado is still rebuilding. (An infield featuring Arenado, Ezequiel Tovar and Ryan McMahon would certainly be a fun one.)

Arenado’s top priority has always been winning. It is understandable why he’s willing to leave the Cardinals — and why he wanted to leave the Rockies before — as St. Louis gets set for an organizational reset. Joining a club coming off their second consecutive 100-loss season does not align with his goal.

Additionally, the 33-year-old’s career is likely winding down and every year is that much more valuable to him.

Overall, while a reunion with Arenado would be a fun & nostalgic storyline for fans, the Rockies’ focus will remain on developing their young, in-house talent like Toglia. Expect 2025 to be a big chance for Toglia to cement his role as the franchise first baseman for the foreseeable future while Arenado most likely tries his luck at a championship somewhere else.

Story by Noah Spirek.