Luke Wortman | March 6th, 2024

The art of scouting prospects is a difficult process because you have to analyze both present and future value together. The result is subjective and unknown, and it’s not quite a science. Regardless, prospect rankings are always an exciting read because, as fans, we get a more concrete glimpse of what the future may be like.

As the 2025 season approaches, a lot of rankings are being released, with MLB.com’s Top 30 Rockies Prospects being released yesterday. The list is a fun read, and all Rockies fans should give it a look. While not every ranking will be covered below, we are going to look at some notable trends on the list, like risers and fallers, and surprising omissions. 

No Surprise Here

While every list is going to have some controversy, there are a lot of aspects on this list that we can all agree on. For example, Chase Dollander and Charlie Condon being numbers 1 and 2 on the list should come as no surprise, however, the rest of the list may be a bit more controversial.

Major Gains

The 2024 season was largely a success for the Rockies’ system and for many prospects, so it’s no surprise to see some guys make a strong jump in the rankings. Others, as we will see, made a jump without playing at all.

RHP Jordy Vargas: +11 Spots

Despite not throwing a single pitch last season, Vargas jumped 11 spots to #14 overall. It’s been about a year and a half since he last threw a pitch in a regular season game, but the 21-year-old has some of the best promise in the system.

Vargas has lots of projectability, going with three strong pitches in his fastball, curve, and changeup. Last time we saw him, the righty tossed a 4.22 ERA and struck out 69 in 64 innings as a 19-year-old. Look for big things this coming season for Vargas as he bounces back from Tommy John surgery.

RHP Yujanyer Herrera: +9 Spots

Herrera has only been in this system for a couple of months (acquired from Milwaukee at the trade deadline), but this latest update resulted in a climb of 9 spots. The former Brewers’ prospect has a strong fastball-slider combo, and he tossed a 3.04 ERA and struck out 110 in 100 innings last season. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John Surgery and will miss all of this season, but it’s clear that MLB.com is bought in on his potential.

OF/SS Cole Carrigg: +4 Spots

After being named a top 100 prospect by Baseball America this offseason, the hype for Carrigg continues as MLB.com ranked him as the club’s third best prospect. The former super utility man can do it all, and he has more tools than most people have in their garages. The 22-year-old hit .283 with 17 home runs and 53 stolen bases last season. 2025 in Double-A will be a more challenging offensive environment for Carrigg, but the sky is the limit.

RHP Gabriel Hughes: +6, OF Robert Calaz: +5, LHP Carson Palmquist: +5, LHP Luis Peralta: +4

Hughes made a climb on this list after returning from TJS and looking solid in the AFL and Spring Training. Calaz is now rated #4 in the system after hitting .344 with 12 home runs as an 18-year-old. Palmquist is rated at #9 after tossing a 3.98 ERA and being on the verge of the big leagues. Peralta tossed a 0.94 ERA in the minors and a 0.73 in 12.1 with the Rockies last season.

Fallers

As with any prospect list, because there are climbers, there will be fallers.

C Cole Messina: -10 Spots

After hitting .326 with 21 home runs for South Carolina, Messina was drafted in the 3rd round by the Rox. It seems that the fall on the list is due to him only hitting .140 in 17 games with Spokane after he was drafted. While the numbers certainly aren’t pretty, it seems oddly soon to drop him this much on the list. Messina has one of the best power tools in the system, and he could be in for a big year in his first pro season.

RHP Jack Mahoney: -9 Spots

A teammate of Messina’s at South Carolina, Mahoney surprisingly dropped 9 spots despite tossing a 3.90 ERA in 120 innings last season, showcasing impressive consistency from start to finish in 2024. Mahoney may not have a crazy high ceiling, but he is one of the best bets in the system to start MLB games. The righty can touch 97 and pairs it with a solid arsenal and command. To see him fall this much is a surprise after a strong season in two hitter-friendly leagues.

3B Kyle Karros: -3 Spots

Admittedly, Karros didn’t fall as much on this list as some others, but it is more of a surprise that he didn’t rise in the rankings. The UCLA product had a great first full pro season, hitting .311 with 15 home runs, winning the Northwest League MVP. He narrowly missed out on winning the Triple Crown in his league, and he won a minor league Gold Glove Award at third base. While Karros isn’t a perfect prospect, he should be ranked a lot higher than #21 and it’s hard to follow MLB.com’s logic here.

OF Zac Veen: -5, OF Sterlin Thompson: -4, C Drew Romo: -3

All three of these dudes are ranked highly in the system and are on the verge of the Show. They all had somewhat disappointing seasons for one reason or another–Veen was injured again, Thompson had a league average stat line, and Romo struggled at the plate in his debut–but all are supremely talented and seem like they had to drop to make up for the risers above.

Omissions

SS Dyan Jorge 

• Jorge went from #15 to being left off the list. About a year ago, he was regarded as one of the best prospects in the system. Unfortunately, he hasn’t physically developed as expected and he had a subpar offensive season in 2024. The 22-year-old still has a lot of potential but will need to significantly improve in his weaker areas to get back on the list.

LHP Michael Prosecky 

• Ranked at #17, Prosecky had a great first pro season in 2023, but injuries sabotaged his 2024 campaign. Injuries limited Prosecky to only 29 innings, and he struggled in the AZ Fall League. If he can get back to pitching as he did in 2023, he will be back on the list soon.

3B Warming Bernabel 

• Last ranked at #24, Bernabel has had two bad offensive seasons in a row at Hartford without any clear path to the big leagues.

RHP Connor Staine 

•  Staine is arguably the biggest omission on the list. We at BSB are definitely on the Staine hype train, and for good reason. The righty is one of the best athletes in this system and brings along quality arm talent as well. More consistency is needed for the UCF alum, but it still is surprising not to see him on the list as he is capable of dominating pro hitters at all levels. If I were a betting man, I would expect to see him added to the midseason list this year.

LHP Luichi Casilla 

• Casilla is the best Rockies prospect that you have probably never heard of. The lefty can hit 100 mph and has two nasty pitches in his fastball and curve, both of which were ranked on our BSB pitch rankings. More execution is needed for the 20-year-old as he had a 7.00 ERA in Rookie Ball, but the sky is the limit for Casilla.

Thanks for reading. Let us know who you think were the biggest surprises from the MLB.com list. Check out the most recent drop of BSB’s Top 40 Prospect list here.