David Cooper | March 31, 2026

A season ago, the first series against the Marlins was a breath of fresh air. With the first sweep of the season coming all the way in June, it felt like a rare moment where things finally clicked.

This year, it’s the Rockies getting swept.

So naturally, it’s time to do what baseball fans do best in late March:

Overreact. (Yes, I know the Rockies just routed the Blue Jays. No, that won’t stop me.)

Overreaction #1: The Rockies cannot hit with runners in scoring position

Let’s start with the most visceral frustration: runners on, nothing happening.

Here’s the data with runners in scoring position (RISP) from Opening Weekend:

• PA: 22
• AB: 20
• Hits: 3
• Walks: 2
• RBI: 4

Slash line:

• AVG: .150
• OBP: .227
• SLG: .200
• OPS: .427
• wOBA: .199

That’s… bleak.

The Rockies generated just 2.04 expected run value when they reached base with RISP outcomes, and missed out on 4.45 expected runs on their outs, a net loss of roughly 2.4 runs in run expectancy over the weekend. In other words, even when they did something right, it wasn’t enough to offset how damaging their failures were. And while the uptick in stolen bases is encouraging, it doesn’t mean much if you can’t consistently bring a runner home from second base.

Overreaction #2: Antonio Senzatela is the best pitcher on the staff

Let’s check the box score first. Senzatela’s line jumps out immediately (2.2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K):

Efficient. Competitive. In control.

Will Senzatela actually be the best pitcher on the squad? Probably not. But there were some obvious changes in his pitch mix that are worth keeping an eye on:

1. Curveball usage ↑ (and whiffs ↑)
Senzatela leaned more heavily on the curve, and early returns show it missing more bats. For a pitcher historically dependent on contact management, that’s a big deal.

2. Changeup → more strikes
The changeup showed improved strike% — whether that’s command or sequencing, it matters. It gives him a pitch he can land early in counts rather than just generate chase.

3. Fastball still the backbone, but…
The four-seam remains the primary pitch, but it’s increasingly clear:

The ceiling of Senzatela depends on everything around the fastball.

And this weekend, the supporting cast looked sharper.

Overreaction #3: The Rockies haven’t figured out how to use ABS

Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) challenges are here, and early returns are… not great.

The Rockies lost roughly:

• ~4% win expectancy at the plate
• ~4% win expectancy on the field

…just from missed challenge opportunities.
To their credit, most of the missed ABS opportunities came early in games and with the bases empty, limiting the immediate damage. Still, a team like the Rockies needs to capitalize on every opportunity. They only challenged two pitches (going 1-for-1 on overturns), leaving additional value on the table. Look for the Rockies to be more aggressive with challenges in the future.

Overreaction #4: Who needs Charlie Condon when you have TJ Rumfield?

Every season needs a guy who forces you to ask uncomfortable questions.

Enter TJ Rumfield.

The early stat line (11 PA, 2 H, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K) is enough to at least raise eyebrows.

It’s a tiny sample, but he looks comfortable in the box and not overmatched, which is half the battle for a young player trying to earn his spot on the club. If he can keep putting together professional plate appearances, he could quietly carve out a meaningful role while the lineup figures itself out—and give the front office something to think about as they weigh whether to accelerate the timeline for Charlie Condon (who hit 2 HRs with Albuquerque this past weekend).

Written by David Cooper.