David Cooper | March 4, 2026
Coming off a historically poor season, it’s easy to get excited about the Rockies’ 6–5 start in the Cactus League. I get excited watching Zac Veen post a 1.048 OPS or seeing Chase Dollander allow just two hits through 4.0 innings.
But we’ve been here before.
Even as we try to forget 2025, it wasn’t long ago that we talked ourselves into a club that went 17–15 in Spring Training last year. Zac Veen became a fan favorite after hitting .270/.352/.542 in camp. We all know how that story ended…
So as Charlie Condon and T.J. Rumfield launch balls into the grass at Talking Stick, I found myself asking a simple question:
What stats actually translate from Spring Training to the regular season?
To answer that, I looked at how individual Rockies hitters’ and pitchers’ spring statistics correlated with their subsequent regular-season performance (2021–2025). Let’s quantify this correlation with a correlation metric (R2) based on a line of best fit (i.e. R2=0 means no correlation and R2=1 means complete correlation). The short version: almost nothing in March meaningfully predicts what happens from April through September.
Almost.
Watch hitters that strikeout (or those that don’t)
When comparing how Spring Training offensive stats correlate to the subsequent season, strikeout percentage (K%) stands well above the rest (R2=0.307). Just a season ago, strikeouts plagued the Rockies, who finished with the second-to-worst K% in the league (25.9%) just behind the Angels. With an emphasis on reaching base and quality of at-bats, keep an eye on the K column when you take a look at the Spring Training box scores.
Hitters to watch: Brett Sullivan (0.0 K% in 15 PA), TJ Rumfield (5.6 K% in 18 PA), and Willi Castro/Nicky Lopez (7.7 K% in 13 PA)
Besides striking out, several other statistics show slight correlations: BB% (R2=0.198), GB/FB (R2=0.188), and HR% (R2=0.160). With HR% falling in line ahead of 1B% (R2=0.146), 2B% (R2=0.003), and 3B% (R2=.034), maybe there is a reason to get excited for the long ball after all.
Hitters to watch: Charlie Condon (3HR in 17 PA), TJ Rumfield (3 HR in 18 PA), Chad Stevens (33.3 BB% in 18 PA), and Brett Sullivan (20.0 BB% in 15 PA)
Watch Punchouts and Free Bases for Pitchers
In agreement with the hitting correlations, pitching correlations are highest for K% (R2 = .236) and BB% (R2 = .183). Any other result (ERA, WHIP, BAA, BABIP) is essentially a meaningless projection for regular-season performance. So while the Rockies’ pitching staff is tinkering with their pitch movements and usage, keep an eye on which players are generating swings and misses and avoiding free passes.
Pitchers to watch: John Brebbia (50.0 K% and 0.0 BB% through 3.0 IP), Zach Agnos (45. K% and 0.0 BB% through 3.0 IP), Tanner Gordon (36.4 K% through 3.0 IP), and Gabriel Hughes (0.0% BB through 4.0 IP).
Written by David Cooper.
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