As we covered in last week’s reliever overview, the Rockies bullpen has faced turbulence in recent years with the worst ERA in MLB (5.41) over the last two seasons, though ERA+–a park-adjusted version of ERA where 100 is average–indicates the Rockies mark of 87 was 3rd worst in MLB.
Further, the 2024 Rockies led MLB in innings pitched by rookies with 296.1 with Boston behind them at 277.2. There are quality young pieces in the Rockies bullpen, creating hope that the Rockies can sport a middle of the pack bullpen in the coming years.
While incoming 8-year MLB arm Tyler Kinley and his 258.2 career innings provides a sturdy veteran presence, the Rockies otherwise lack extensive experience in their bullpen. Arms like Jimmy Herget, Justin Lawrence, Jake Bird, and Lucas Gilbreath have a fair share of experience but Lawrence leads that group with just 194 career innings.
In addition, the Rockies don’t have a surefire closer going into 2025. Plenty of their relievers have closer stuff and some experience in the 9th inning but there’s no clear-cut option.
As a result, the Rockies will certainly be active on the reliever market as they look to bolster the late innings. Fortunately for them, a handful of free agent relievers fit the bill for Colorado. It’s possible Colorado addresses their bullpen need with smaller magnitude transactions, but the prospect of adding a standout pitcher seems probable.
You may argue the Rockies shouldn’t add a closer since they won’t be in contention in 2025. While that’s true, the young core needs to get familiar with winning, and stabilizing the bullpen may go a long way in preventing 9th inning implosions as we saw often in 2024.
The High End Relievers
This year’s free agent market has a couple of experienced pitchers with prior success as closers, including one with deep ties to Colorado. Another former Rockies pitcher, Jeff Hoffman finds himself on the free agent market as well but prior critical comments about his former club may indicate a reunion is not likely.
Clay Holmes
Holmes is arguably the best reliever on the market as he ranks 11th in fWAR among relievers since the start of 2022. 2024 saw some regression from Holmes that led the Yankees to move him into a hybrid late-inning role. There’s concern about Holmes’s superior numbers in non-save situations versus save situations, but in any event, he’s a top tier reliever.
Holmes attacks hitters with an upper-90s turbo sinker that can touch 100. It averages 3 more inches of drop than the average right-handed pitcher’s sinker and can be an absolute bowling ball of a pitch. Since 2021, the groundball percentage against Holmes’s sinker has been above 69.4%. In fact, Holmes is coming off a 2024 season where he led MLB in groundball percentage among pitchers with 50 or more innings with a 68.6% mark.
Holmes backs his sinker up with a wicked hybrid breaking ball. At times, Holmes throws a sweeper with elite movement on both planes in the low-80s and at others, he throws a heavy-vertical slider that works in the upper-80s. Both breaking balls generally get whiffs on 40% or more of swings (generally a 30% whiff rate on a pitch is very good, 40% is in the top ~10% of pitchers).
Holmes has run a roughly average walk rate in recent years but his issues arise as a result of inconsistent feel for his heavy-breaking arsenal. In any event, Holmes would be a perfect fit in Colorado because of his power and ability to get ground balls.
With so many standout characteristics, Holmes will be in high demand this offseason for a team looking to add a bullpen ace. However, in an era where bullpen salaries are suppressed, Colorado will have a chance to be a top bidder. This is the only instance though where Colorado’s commitment to cutting payroll may interfere with a well-fitting free agent.
Anticipate Holmes receiving a 3-year contract in the range of $33 million ($11M AAV).
Carlos Estevez
After a tumultuous Rockies career that saw Estevez throw over 300 innings to the tune of a 4.59 ERA, Wild Thing moved on to the Los Angeles Angels after the 2022 season. There was no bad blood between Estevez and the Rockies but his inconsistency clearly impeded the Rockies from dishing out the $13.5 million that the Angels were willing to commit.
During Estevez’s entire Rockies tenure, it was evident that he possessed closer upside with his oft-100 mph fastball and decent slider-changeup combo. However, Estevez never commanded his arsenal consistently at Coors Field and he found himself prone to giving up oodles of hard contact.
Even in his first year with Los Angeles, the story was the same as Estevez’s 1.49 WHIP was actually worse than or equal to 4 of his 6 Rockies seasons. However, in 2024, Estevez saw a jump in his zone% from 54.5% to 58.1% (by far a career high), showing he was attacking the zone more and backing up the notion that he was commanding his arsenal better.
The result was a 2.45 ERA and 26 saves between the Angels and Phillies with an elite 0.91 WHIP.
Estevez would certainly see a regression in his stuff at altitude and might lose some of his newfound confidence pounding the zone but after performing excellently in a contract year, he may not be overly concerned with receiving another contract after whatever he receives this offseason.
Estevez’s more inconsistent track record will not support a contract as high as Clay Holmes but Wild Thing should still receive around 3 years and $30 million ($10M AAV).
Between Estevez and Holmes, the Rockies have a chance to sign a surefire closer, though allocating around $10 million per season to a reliever may not be in the cards.
Intermediate Veteran Relievers
A handful of pitchers available have seen better days but still profile to be servicable late inning arms in 2025.
Paul Sewald
Between 2021 and 2023, Paul Sewald was among the best late-inning relievers in baseball, as indicated by his 2.95 ERA in 189.1 innings. Sewald ranked 9th in saves, 5th in strikeouts, 5th in K% minus BB%, and 2nd in WHIP among qualified relievers during that span.
Not only did Sewald pitch with uncommonly good stuff but he was one of the best in the game at executing in key spots.
In 2024, Sewald’s velocity remained intact and his stuff did not noticeably worsen. However, his fastball has lost marginal bits of velocity and induced vertical break (think of it as fastball rise/carry) over the last couple of seasons making it slightly more hittable. It’s worth noting Sewald did miss time with an oblique and neck injury in 2024 so he likely didn’t feel 100% for most of the season.
As it is, Sewald was typically in the low-90s, topping out at 95, relying on his low slot to create optimal fastball shape so the margin for error with Sewald’s fastball is not large.
However, Sewald is still the same pitcher. He pounds the zone with a deceptive rising fastball and has a nasty sweeper. The former Mariner and Diamondback may not be as good as he once was but all indications suggest he still has another year or two as a quality backend reliever, especially if he stays healthy in 2025.
The Rockies have made a concerted effort to add pitchers with funky mechanics and arm slots and Sewald would fit right in. Additionally, his fastball does not rely heavily on spin to be effective–exactly what the Rockies have been building. The only snag here is that Sewald is not a groundball pitcher; his fastball works up in the zone where outs are more commonly generated via flyballs.
Because of his 4.31 ERA and overall inconsistent 2024, Sewald will likely receive a contract in the ballpark of 2 years for $10 million dollars ($5M AAV). A former high school rival and college teammate of Kris Bryant, Sewald could serve as the Rockies closer in 2025 before ceding the role to a younger pitcher in 2026.
Blake Treinen
Treinen re-emerged this season after missing most of 2022 and all of 2023 recovering from serious shoulder procedures, serving a key role in the Dodgers World Series win. Prior to that, Treinen had spans of time where he was the best reliever in baseball, just look at his 2018 season (0.78 ERA with 38 saves) and 2021 season (1.99 ERA).
Looking like his career was spiraling, Treinen returned in 2024 with a vengeance, finishing with his best ERA and WHIP since that otherworldly 2018 season. Treinen’s 1.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP indicate he’s back to being near the top of the sport.
While Treinen no longer sits 96-99 with disgusting run and fade backed by a low-90s sweeper, Treinen still shows the same attributes that made him elite in recent years. Treinen’s sinker averaged 94.6 mph, touching 98, with heavy movement. His sweeper also still has frisbee movement in the mid-80s with a whiff% of 49.2% which rivals his 2018 year.
Treinen also has a cutter and 4-seamer in his back pocket to diversify his attack strategy, though neither pitch is close to his elite sinker-sweeper combo.
Set to turn 37 in June, Treinen’s future is uncertain, especially considering the recent injury history. If he can repeat his 2024 campaign, there’s still clear closer stuff here. A one year pillow contract seems most likely.
Expect Treinen to land around $9 million for the 2025 season with a chance for a 2-year contract with slightly less annual value. Coming off such a strong season, Treinen’s market will be robust but if he has interest in a closer role, the Rockies can offer such a position.
Tommy Kahnle
Another–and not the final–former Rockies reliever available on the market, Tommy Kahnle is quite similar to Blake Treinen in terms of cementing his rebound after hardly pitching between 2020 and 2022.
Kahnle has been healthy for two years now, logging over 40 inning both of the last two seasons with a 2.38 ERA in that span.
Kahnle came up with the Rockies as a power pitcher and came into his own in 2017, a year after being traded to the White Sox. While not an upper-90s arm anymore, Kahnle averaged 94.2 mph on his fastball this season, though it’s Kahnle’s changeup that deserves mention.
Kahnle goes to the offspeed pitch over 70% of the time. His changeup is an upper-80s low-spin offering–matching the recent development of testing low-spin offspeed pitches (ideally a splitter) at Coors Field–with hellacious drop and fade to it. It’s a legit plus pitch that misses a ton of bats and yields a ton of soft contact on the ground.
For his changeup alone, the Rockies should pursue Kahnle, especially as a mid-market arm likely to get a deal in Paul Sewald’s neighborhood of 2 years for $10-12 million.
Adam Ottavino
The final familiar face receiving mention is a future managerial candidate in Adam Ottavino. Part of the inclusion is here requires us to think about a scenario where Ottavino pitches his final year in Colorado and then returns as the club’s manager for 2026. We can dream right?
Aside from that pipedream, Ottavino still has gas in the tank. In recent years, Ottavino has developed a plain goofy 6 pitch arsenal that allows him to compensate for waning velocity and overall stuff.
Even with his somewhat reduced stuff quality, Ottavino still has that signature frisbee sweeper and a quality pair of fastballs. Because of his unique delivery, Ottavino is still a tricky at-bat for hitters and he’s a good bet to limit hard contact.
As has always been the case, damage comes when Ottavino lacks feel for his release point and walks batters but the New York native has kept his walk rate in check in recent years (8.9% since ’22).
Ottavino might not be a surefire closer anymore but he could at least serve in a set-up role, providing much-needed late inning stability. It’s hard to imagine Ottavino getting more than a one-year deal and he projects to receive between $5-7 million.
Bounceback Reliever Candidates
A trio of intriguing pitchers could eventually profile for backend work as they return from injuries. This is where things get fun as all three of these pitchers could be add at minimal cost with huge upside between all three.
Jonathan Loáisiga
As is the case with several above pitchers, Loáisiga is a couple years removed from being flat out dominant and near the top of the league. The former Yankee has dealt with several injuries in recent years, including an April Tommy John surgery.
Loáisiga was primed for a bounceback 2024 season but that storyline will be put on the backburner until the middle of 2025. It’s not like the Rockies to sign pitchers recovering from Tommy John, however, Loáisiga is a rare talent they can buy low on.
At his best, Loáisiga features an upper-90s sinker with top tier run. It’s a groundball machine of a pitch that makes Loáisiga much like the other impending Yankee free agents Holmes and Kahnle. Loáisiga follows the sinker up with a power slurve that can touch 90 and a low-90s changeup that tunnels extremely well with his sinker.
Further, Loáisiga has a strong track record for throwing strikes and commanding his arsenal. He brings the rare package of power and command that could cruise at Coors Field with the high groundball frequency.
A pitcher like Loáisiga will explore different opportunities this winter. A one-year pillow contract could be of interest so he can revisit the market next year, but a little more long-term security may also be desirable. An incentive-loaded 2-year, $12 million deal would be worth dangling in front of the Nicaragua native.
James Karinchak
Karinchak was on his way to being one of the best up-and-coming relievers in the game before a shoulder injury deprived him of the 2024 campaign. Karinchak owns a stellar 3.10 ERA with a gaudy 36.2 K% in his career.
Known for his unique overtop armslot, powerful stuff, and celebratory antics, Karinchak is undeniably fun to watch when he’s sharp.
Throughout his career, Karinchak has sat in the 95-98 range with a very lively fastball, following it up with a heavy near 12-6 curveball that can touch 85. It’s a simple recipe for Karinchak but when he’s in sync, hitters aren’t doing much damage to his stuff. At his best, it’s not a bold take to say Karinchak has some of the best stuff in all of MLB.
Ultimately, the former Guardian may be an unorthodox and poor fit in Colorado because of how much spin-based movement his fastball has and the vertical reliance of his breaking ball but he could be an interesting altitude experiment.
Much like Loáisiga, Karinchak will likely face the decision of trying to rebuild his value on a one-year contract or spreading some money out over two or three seasons.
Keynan Middleton
A more unheralded pitcher, Keynan Middleton has been one of the more underappreciated relief pitchers for a long time. Across 194.1 career innings, Middleton owns a 3.84 ERA with 199 strikeouts.
The journeyman underwent flexor tendon (elbow/forearm) surgery in June to repair an injury suffered in Spring Training so he may delayed in pitching for a new club but his quality three-pitch arsenal would be worth waiting on.
Middleton mixes a power fastball pretty evenly with his slider and changeup. The fastball is ultimately Middleton’s best pitch, sitting 94-97 with decent life. His slider and changeup are both closer to average but not many relievers can claim three average or better pitches. Both secondaries miss enough bats to suggest Middleton can claim an 8th inning role going forward, assuming he stays healthy.
What to Do?
The Rockies absolutely have to reinforce their bullpen. Last year’s unit featured a compelling young core but the more experienced pitchers in the pen blew a few too many leads. Despite underwhelming starting pitching and offense, the Rockies likely would have been a 70-win team with a marginally better bullpen.
While there’s been farfetched mention of the Diamondbacks, Royals, Rangers, and Orioles and their respective immediate turnarounds in the 2020s, the Rockies need to take steps back to relevance and salvage as many wins as possible this season. That is especially so when you consider the club cannot pick inside the top-10 of the 2026 Draft.
While the first pair of arms in this article are likely a tier above where the Rockies are willing to spend or capable of luring to Denver, the remaining arms could all be vital pieces to a 2025 bullpen and potentially even in 2026.
Personally, Jonathan Loáisiga would be my choice as he’s got dominant power stuff, quality command, and premier groundball stuff. If he wasn’t recovering from Tommy John, Loáisiga would likely be one of the top arms on the market. In any event, stability is needed from outside the organization.
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