Starting next Monday, Dallas will be bustling with MLB agents, players, executives, and front office staffers for baseball’s equivalent of the Met Gala, minus the red carpet and crazy fashion. It’s the MLB Winter Meetings.
The Winter Meetings allow the groundwork to be laid for the offseason and upcoming season’s moves, both between clubs and between clubs & players. While we’ll see a flurry of moves take place, transactions can be tedious and we might not see the fruits of the Winter Meetings until after the New Year.
For the Rockies, destiny awaits on December 10th, the date of the MLB Draft Lottery. The rest of the Winter Meetings might result in some moves for the club, but we should not expect anything major.
MLB Draft Lottery
For the third season in a row, the Rockies will have their first-round draft selection chosen via ping pong balls at the Winter Meetings. With it being their third lottery season in a row, the Rockies will be ineligible for a top-10 pick next season.
More notably, the Rockies are tied with the Marlins for the highest odds for the top pick. Both clubs are the beneficiaries of the Athletics and White Sox being relegated outside the top-10 for being “big market” teams having picked in the lottery two seasons in a row.
The Rockies hold a 22.45% chance of receiving the first overall selection and roughly 50% odds of picking within the top 2 of what should be a draft laden with talent at the top–more on that talent to come next week.
Should the Rockies land the number one pick, they’ll be given a strong opportunity to turn their fortune around. Not only can a number one overall pick be a potential a turning point, but it would grant the Rockies additional money to spend on their later picks (practically no #1 picks sign for full-slot anymore).
There is still an unfortunate likelihood that the Rockies could pick outside the top 5, potentially as low as 7, although those odds are next to none. In all likelihood, the Rockies will be picking within the top 4.
Other Storylines at the Winter Meetings
With the offseason entering full stride, the Rockies are considering addressing organizational needs. Perhaps the most practical to address will be the bullpen, though a minor move to the rotation or lineup can’t be ruled out. A prospect for prospect trade also seems on the table. Could the Winter Meetings foster some moves for the Rockies?
Rockies Bullpen
We laid out some traditional free agent targets here and some newer targets made available by the non-tender deadline here.
The Rockies won’t be after a big ticket closer in all likelihood. However, they will certainly be considering mid-market options. Paul Sewald, Blake Treinen, and Tommy Kahnle seem like particularly good choices.
For a team that blew a record number of sizable 9th-inning leads and managed to spoil a handful of other late-inning opportunities, a bullpen stabilizer could go a very long way.
The Winter Meetings are not always conducive to smaller-magnitude deals, but the Rockies could put a cork in their bullpen leak next week.
Rotation & Lineup
The Rockies have depth in the rotation with prospects Chase Dollander and Carson Palmquist practically ready whenever and German Márquez and Antonio Senzatela set to be healthy going into 2025.
The current 5 starters will likely be Márquez, Ryan Feltner, Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber, and Senzatela with the aforementioned prospects waiting their turn. Tanner Gordon and Bradley Blalock who both saw in limited starts last season will be available as well.
Having so many options makes a starting pitching move pretty unlikely, but the Rockies would capitalize on an opportunity to upgrade the rotation long-term.
In terms of the lineup, the Rockies will all but certainly add veterans on minor league deals to reinforce the middle infield and possibly behind the plate and in the outfield. It’s not foreseeable that the club would sign a player to the active roster with much of the starting 9 already sharpied in.
Prospect for Prospect Trade?
The Rockies most recent prospect-for-prospect trades have landed them Nolan Jones and Greg Jones. The concept of a deal like this fits where the Rockies are currently at; they need to sift through players currently in the big leagues while simultaneously shaping their future.
The club has a handful of outfield prospects including Jordan Beck, Greg Jones, Yanquiel Fernandez, and Zac Veen who are all on the 40-man roster, along with Charlie Condon, Benny Montgomery, Sterlin Thompson, and Cole Carrigg as outfielders set to be knocking on the door soon. Additionally, we can’t forget about two other young outfielders in Brenton Doyle and Nolan Jones.
The ascending Robert Calaz and recent 2nd-round draftee Jared Thomas provide more depth to that group. Could the Rockies take the approach of making sure they eventually have the best combination of these prospects at the big league level? Possibly, but with so much traffic, trading one or even two of these prospects is emerging as a strong possibility.
The Rockies are without an abundance of high-end pitching prospects, though the organization has a trove of possible backend starters. Additionally, the Rockies have only a couple promising middle infield prospects.
While next to every club could be a trade partner in a prospects-only trade, could the Marlins, Rays, White Sox, Pirates, Royals, or Reds be a particularly suitable team? All six clubs could use an outfield upgrade both at the MLB level or in their farm system and some discussions are certain to take place during the Winter Meetings.
Around the League
While news on the Rockies will likely be sparse outside of the MLB Draft Lottery, there are huge storylines around the league with some headlines in the NL West as we approach the Winter Meetings.
The Dodgers have been connected to arguably the two most desirable free agents in Juan Soto and Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki. Dubbed the Monster of the Reiwa Era (Reiwa Era is post May 2019), Sasaki is arguably the best pitching talent to ever surface in Japan with health and consistency the only remote questions.
If the Dodgers land either player, let alone both, they will be overwhelming favorites to repeat as World Series champions. Soto is expected to command a contract in the range of Shohei Ohtani — considering the eventual impacts of inflation on Ohtani’s deferrals puts the contract value closer to $500M — while Sasaki will have to be signed using an MLB team’s international bonus pool and take a similar path to free agency as Ohtani.
Other NL West News:
- The Dodgers signed two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell to a five-year deal with the lefty now slotting in alongside Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and LA’s assortment of young arms set to be healthier this year like Bobby Miller, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin.
- With such impressive depth, could the Dodgers swing a blockbuster deal with one or more of their young starting pitchers, especially if they land Sasaki?
- Snell’s contract came on the heels of a Tommy Edman extension, good for five-years and $74 million. Edman has been one of the best overall defensive players this century and is a luxury piece for the Dodgers as they certainly have enough offense.
- Ha-Seong Kim may be moving north from San Diego to San Francisco, though no deal is official. Kim has compiled 10.9 fWAR in 4 seasons with the Padres and is one of the game’s best defensive infielders. If the Giants can land Kim, they will be strong Wild Card contenders in 2025.
- In other Giants news, the Bay Area club has kicked the tires on signing free-agent ace Corbin Burnes. The California-native Burnes would immediately be one of the best pitchers in the division and further elevate the Giants’ chances of making a postseason run. San Francisco will be competing with plenty of other big market teams for Burnes’s services so the odds of Burnes becoming a Giant are not great.
- Joc Pederson has a robust market after dropping a career-best .908 OPS in 132 games for the Diamondbacks. Arizona is interested in retaining the slugger’s services, but a bidding war is set to ensue. Pederson has 21 homers against the Rockies in his career.
- The Padres face a difficult choice with trade deadline addition and contact-maestro Luis Arraez. The 27-year-old is due for what might controversially be considered an overpay in his final year before free agency as he reaches arbitration for the fourth time. With the Padres in a financial crunch in recent years, paying a one-dimensional player like Arraez upwards of $15 million may not be in the club’s best interest.
- Trade interest in Arraez is sure to exist for clubs looking to spike the top of their lineup.
- On the flip side, the team could look to extend Arraez, lowering his 2025 cost in the process. In any event, we’re all but certain to get Arraez news in the next month, prior to January 9th’s arbitration filing deadline.
The Winter Meetings will provide baseball fans with enough news to last through the New Year. Unfortunately for Rockies fans, you’ll likely have to look around the league for much excitement. Still, the MLB Draft lottery will be a day to go down in Rockies history, one way or another.
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